Table 2.
Expected survival (95% confidence intervals) in years by transplant policy A and B, age at diagnosis and time in months t of transplant decision
| Age at diagnosis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy A | Delay time t | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 |
| IPSS-R low | 0 | 16.39 (11.21,24.33) | 16.37 (11.21,24.24) | 16.35 (11.21,24.13) | 16.32 (11.22,23.9) | 16.23 (11.24,23.52) | 16.08 (11.29,22.84) | 15.75 (11.38,21.62) | 15.17 (11.56,19.46) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) |
| 1 | 16.49 (11.45,24.15) | 16.48 (11.45,24.09) | 16.45 (11.45,23.96) | 16.41 (11.47,23.76) | 16.32 (11.48,23.4) | 16.16 (11.52,22.7) | 15.82 (11.58,21.47) | 15.2 (11.69,19.34) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 3 | 16.68 (11.82,23.88) | 16.66 (11.83,23.83) | 16.64 (11.83,23.72) | 16.6 (11.83,23.49) | 16.5 (11.85,23.14) | 16.32 (11.86,22.47) | 15.95 (11.89,21.25) | 15.27 (11.88,19.13) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 6 | 16.94 (12.3,23.42) | 16.92 (12.3,23.38) | 16.89 (12.31,23.29) | 16.84 (12.32,23.07) | 16.73 (12.32,22.73) | 16.53 (12.3,22.09) | 16.13 (12.26,20.93) | 15.35 (12.09,18.93) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 12 | 17.37 (12.96,22.96) | 17.35 (12.96,22.89) | 17.32 (12.96,22.79) | 17.25 (12.95,22.57) | 17.13 (12.95,22.25) | 16.89 (12.92,21.67) | 16.42 (12.77,20.56) | 15.48 (12.37,18.65) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 18 | 17.71 (13.38,22.98) | 17.69 (13.38,22.87) | 17.65 (13.38,22.75) | 17.58 (13.36,22.58) | 17.44 (13.34,22.23) | 17.17 (13.27,21.62) | 16.63 (13.06,20.5) | 15.57 (12.57,18.57) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 24 | 17.99 (13.59,23.09) | 17.96 (13.58,23.04) | 17.92 (13.58,22.9) | 17.84 (13.56,22.68) | 17.69 (13.52,22.32) | 17.39 (13.42,21.67) | 16.79 (13.17,20.48) | 15.62 (12.6,18.54) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 36 | 18.37 (13.77,23.5) | 18.34 (13.77,23.42) | 18.3 (13.76,23.32) | 18.21 (13.75,23.09) | 18.03 (13.69,22.71) | 17.69 (13.58,21.97) | 17 (13.26,20.69) | 15.66 (12.63,18.55) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 48 | 18.61 (13.84,23.89) | 18.58 (13.83,23.383) | 18.54 (13.82,23.69) | 18.44 (13.8,23.45) | 18.24 (13.76,23.03) | 17.87 (13.62,22.24) | 17.12 (13.32,20.87) | 15.65 (12.56,18.56) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| 60 | 18.76 (13.91,24.23) | 18.73 (13.9,24.13) | 18.69 (13.89,23.96) | 18.58 (13.87,23.68) | 18.37 (13.8,23.25) | 17.97 (13.67,22.44) | 17.18 (13.36,20.97) | 15.62 (12.5,18.54) | 13.97 (11.04,16.89) | |
| Policy B | Delay time t | 30 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 |
| IPSS-R intermediate | 0 | 19.01 (13.87,24.94) | 18.97 (13.86,24.85) | 18.9 (13.84,24.69) | 18.8 (13.82,24.41) | 18.56 (13.77,23.83) | 18.1 (13.65,22.85) | 17.2 (13.29,21.15) | 15.62 (12.5,18.53) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) |
| 1 | 18.9 (13.85,24.66) | 18.86 (13.85,24.56) | 18.79 (13.82,24.41) | 18.69 (13.81,24.14) | 18.45 (13.76,23.6) | 18 (13.63,22.64) | 17.11 (13.3,20.96) | 15.55 (12.47,18.45) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 3 | 18.69 (13.83, 24.15) | 18.65 (13.83,24.09) | 18.59 (13.83,23.92) | 18.48 (13.81,23.63) | 18.25 (13.75,23.11) | 17.8 (13.6,22.21) | 16.93 (13.24,20.57) | 15.42 (12.4,18.26) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 6 | 18.4 (13.79,23.46) | 18.36 (13.79,23.37) | 18.3 (13.78,23.25) | 18.2 (13.75,22.95) | 17.97 (13.69,22.47) | 17.53 (13.54,21.61) | 16.69 (13.17,20.11) | 15.24 (12.31,18.02) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 12 | 17.9 (13.72,22.25) | 17.87 (13.72,22.17) | 17.8 (13.7,22.06) | 17.72 (13.67,21.85) | 17.5 (13.6,21.44) | 17.09 (13.42,20.71) | 16.29 (12.99,19.42) | 14.96 (12.1,17.71) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 18 | 17.49 (13.55,21.53) | 17.46 (13.55,21.47) | 17.41 (13.54,21.34) | 17.32 (13.52,21.13) | 17.12 (13.45,20.71) | 16.73 (13.29,20.04) | 15.98 (12.87,18.88) | 14.74 (11.94,17.51) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 24 | 17.17 (13.47,20.89) | 17.14 (13.46,20.8) | 17.09 (13.45,20.68) | 17 (13.41,20.47) | 16.81 (13.34,20.11) | 16.44 (13.16,19.5) | 15.73 (12.7,18.55) | 14.59 (11.81,17.37) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 36 | 16.69 (13.19,20.01) | 16.66 (13.18,19.93) | 16.62 (13.17,19.84) | 16.54 (13.14,19.66) | 16.36 (13.06,19.39) | 16.02 (12.89,18.9) | 15.38 (12.44,18.12) | 14.39 (11.55,17.2) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 48 | 16.38 (13,19.56) | 16.35 (13,19.49) | 16.31 (12.98,19.41) | 16.23 (12.94,19.27) | 16.07 (12.88,19.01) | 15.75 (12.69,18.59) | 15.16 (12.26,17.93) | 14.29 (11.44,17.14) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) | |
| 60 | 16.17 (12.81,19.3) | 16.15 (12.81,19.24) | 16.1 (12.8,19.15) | 16.03 (12.78,19.02) | 15.88 (12.7,18.78) | 15.58 (12.54,18.39) | 15.02 (12.16,17.79) | 14.27 (11.4,17.12) | 13.96 (11.05,16.9) |