Fig. 2.

Calibration results on the number of high-risk females in the states following a systematic probabilistic calibration approach. The results of the Bayesian models are similar, with a slightly higher number of high-risk females in the states Infected and Asymptomatic estimated by the Bayesian ODE-based model. In contrast, the deterministic ODE-based model results in a lower estimate on the number of high-risk females in the states Infected and Asymptomatic; however, the outcome on the state Morbid is reversed