Table 1.
Overview of the informative priors and the models used for updating informative and minimally-informative priors
| Parameter | Description | Distribution/model BMM | Distribution/model BODE | Mean | 2.5/97.5% percentiles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ω MH | Partner acquisition rate (high-risk males) | Poisson-Gamma model | Equivalent to BMM | 9.10 | [8.77;9.29] |
| ω ML | Partner acquisition rate (low-risk males) | Poisson-Gamma model | Equivalent to BMM | 2.98 | [2.82;3.12] |
| ω FH | Partner acquisition rate (high-risk females) | Poisson-Gamma model | Equivalent to BMM | 9.00 | [8.71;9.26] |
| ω FL | Partner acquisition rate (low-risk females) | Poisson-Gamma model | Equivalent to BMM | 1.96 | [1.86;2.09] |
| χ | Proliferation parameter | Gamma(1111.1,111111.1) | Gamma(1111.1,111111.1) | 0.01 | [0.01;0.01] |
| β | STI transmission probability per partnership | Beta-Binomial model | Equivalent to BMM | 0.16 | [0.15;0.16] |
| π 2,3 | Transition parameter from state 2 to state 3 | Beta(5119.2, 1279.8) | Gamma(25600,32000) | 0.80 | [0.79;0.81] |
| π 3,4 | Transition parameter from state 3 to state 4 | Beta(1842.66, 18631.34) | Gamma(2025,22500) | 0.09 | [0.09;0.09] |
| π 4,5 | Transition parameter from state 4 to state 5 | Beta(1535.96, 36863.04) | Gamma(1600,40000) | 0.04 | [0.04;0.04] |
| π 1,5 | Transition parameter from state 1 to state 5 | Beta(156.171, 312186.6) | Gamma(156.25,312500) | <0.01 | [<0.01;<0.01] |
| η | Probability of STI diagnosis | Beta-Binomial model | Equivalent to BMM | 0.90 | [0.88;0.92] |
| σ | Screening probability | Beta-Binomial model | Equivalent to BMM | 0.90 | [0.87;0.92] |
| α | Vaccine coverage parameter | Beta-Binomial model | Equivalent to BMM | 0.90 | [0.87;0.92] |
| γ | Vaccine efficacy parameter | Beta-Binomial model | Equivalent to BMM | 0.90 | [0.87;0.92] |
| c screen | Unit cost of screening in £ | Lognormal(2.996, 0.693) | Equivalent to BMM | 25.39 | [5.19;77.53] |
| c vac | Unit cost of vaccination in £ | Lognormal(5.011, 0.01) | Equivalent to BMM | 150.02 | [147.14;152.98] |
| c test | Unit cost of STI test in £ | Lognormal(2.996, 0.03) | Equivalent to BMM | 20.01 | [18.83;21.19] |
| c blood | Unit cost of blood test in £ | Lognormal(3.401, 0.03) | Equivalent to BMM | 30 | [28.26;31.79] |
| c treat | Unit cost of treatment in £ | Lognormal(8.517, 0.015) | Equivalent to BMM | 4999.78 | [4853.56;5149.24] |
| c dis | Unit cost of disease treatment in £ | Lognormal(9.210, 0.01) | Equivalent to BMM | 9999.95 | [9802.97;10198.10] |
| c gp | Unit cost of visit to general practitioner in £ | Lognormal(3.912, 0.02) | Equivalent to BMM | 50.01 | [48.08;52.01] |
| u 2 | Health utility of infected (min=0, max=1) | Beta(1469.3, 629.7) | Equivalent to BMM | 0.70 | [0.68;0.72] |
| u 3 | Health utility of asymptomatic (min=0, max=1) | Beta(1439.4, 959.6) | Equivalent to BMM | 0.60 | [0.58;0.62] |
| u 4 | Health utility of morbid (min=0, max=1) | Beta(629.7, 1469.3) | Equivalent to BMM | 0.30 | [0.28;0.32] |
The values are fictional and were chosen so as to produce most realistic prevalence outcome and cost-effectiveness results