Table 1. Input parameters to estimate multipliers to correct for under-reporting in Puerto Rico (2005–2010).
| Multiplier | Probability distribution | Parameter values (ranges) |
Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hospitalized | Outpatient | |||
| Multiplier A; Sensitivity of dengue diagnostic tests | Triangular for PCR-based test | Low:0.93 Most likely:0.98 High:0.99 |
[25] | |
| Triangular for IgM test | Low:0.5159 Most likely:0.5568 High:0.5970 |
[28] | ||
| Multiplier B: 1—proportion of suspect cases not tested due to inadequate specimen volume or incomplete informationb | None | 1 | 1 | Passive and Enhanced Dengue Surveillance Systems |
| Multiplier C: Estimated proportion of cases with indeterminate diagnostic test results that would actually be positive | Triangular (MA Sub-model)a |
Low:0.44 Most likely:0.67 High:0.77 |
Low:0.16 Most likely:0.44 High:0.74 |
CDC Dengue Branch |
| Triangular (DO sub-model)a |
Low:0.11 Most likely:0.65 High:0.78 |
Low:0.0 Most likely:0.3 High: 1 |
||
| Multiplier D: Difference between PDSS and EDSS in number of reported, laboratory-positive casesc | Uniform (MA sub-model)a |
1.63–4.40 | 11.87–35.33 | Passive and Enhanced Dengue Surveillance Systems |
| Uniform (DO sub-model)a |
1 | 2.46–11.22 | ||
| Multiplier E: Estimated proportion of outpatient suspect cases not reported to PDSSc,d | Uniform | Low:0.51 High:0.62 |
[29] | |
a: MA sub-model = “Medically Attended (MA),” which includes all patients who either had a completed Dengue Case Information Form (DCIF), or had some indication in their medical records (such as specimens sent to a laboratory for dengue testing) as potentially having a clinical case of dengue. In the second sub-model, labeled “DCIF Only (DO),” we included only those patients (in or out) definitively recorded as potential dengue case on a DCIF. See text for further details.
b: Multiplier B is set at 1 means that it is assumed that there are no cases with inadequate specimen volume that would prevent laboratory testing.
c: PDSS—Passive Dengue Surveillance System; EDSS—Enhanced Dengue Surveillance Systems
d: Multiplier E pertains only to outpatients. See text for additional details.