Fig. 1.

Effect size distributions of the original study and replication for the example presented in the introduction. Panels a and b refer to the effect size distributions for θ = 0 and θ = 0.103. y _O and y _R denote the observed effect sizes in the original study and replication, and $y_O^{\mathit{CV}}$ denotes the critical value of the original study based on a two-tailed hypothesis test of H₀: θ = 0 with α = .05. The shaded regions refer to probabilities larger than y _R, y _O, and $y_O^{\mathit{CV}}$. The (conditional) probabilities of the original study and replication are indicated by q _O and q _R, and their sum by x