Fig. 3.

Predicted PvPR_LM in Papua New Guinean provinces using individual-based model. Model predictions are based on the median of 100 stochastic simulations. Data are from household prevalence surveys in randomly selected villages¹⁴, and surveys from a number of sentinel villages either before or after LLIN distribution¹³. The black curves denote the model-predicted scenario if LLINs are not replaced. In the LLIN campaigns, nets are assumed to be distributed every 3 years, with 50% of nets still in use after 19.5 months. Primaquine (PQ) or tafenoquine (TQ) with accompanying G6PD screening are assumed to be include in first-line treatment regimens from 2020, with 50% of individuals experiencing a clinical episode of P. vivax being tested and treated