Table 3.

Predictive accuracy of current and new biomarkers compared to ROC‐AUC = 0.5

	Discovery cohort N = 116					Validation cohort N = 150
Metabolite/Biomarker	ROC‐AUC (95% CI)	P value	SENS (95% CI)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	ROC‐AUC (95% CI)	P value	SENS (95% CI)	PPV (%)	NPV (%)
APAP‐CYS/APAP‐Sul	0.91 (0.83‐0.98)	< 0.0001	0.71 (0.42‐0.92)	50	96	0.76 (0.63‐0.88)	0.0003	0.43 (0.35‐0.52)	38	92
CYP%	0.78 (0.67‐0.90)	0.0006	0.36 (0.13‐0.65)	33	91	0.66 (0.51‐0.82)	0.02	0.11 (0.06‐0.17)	14	87
Sum CYP metabolites	0.75 (0.61‐0.88)	0.003	0.48 (0.38‐0.58)	40	93	0.83 (0.71‐0.94)	< 0.0001	0.44 (0.36‐0.53)	39	92
APAP‐CYS	0.75 (0.61‐0.88)	0.003	0.36 (0.13‐0.65)	33	91	0.82 (0.71‐0.94)	< 0.0001	0.44 (0.35‐0.52)	39	92
INR	0.70 (0.54‐0.86)	0.03	0.23 (0.05‐0.54)	24	89	0.71 (0.57‐0.85)	0.005	0.07 (0.03‐0.13)	9	87
ALT	0.67 (0.50‐0.84)	0.04	0.29 (0.08‐0.58)	28	90	0.51 (0.35‐0.67)	0.86	0.16 (0.03‐0.40)	19	88
APAP‐Sul	0.65 (0.48‐0.82)	0.06	0.50 (0.23‐0.77)	41	93	0.53 (0.38‐0.67)	0.75	0.11 (0.06‐0.17)	14	87
APAP‐Glu	0.63 (0.44‐0.82)	0.11	0.36 (0.13‐0.65)	33	91	0.61 (0.47‐0.76)	0.11	0.11 (0.06‐0.17)	14	87
APAP‐GSH	0.61 (0.46‐0.76)	0.19	0.21 (0.05‐0.51)	22	89	0.67 (0.61‐0.74)	0.004	0.41 (0.21‐0.64)	37	91
APAP‐Mer	0.59 (0.40‐0.77)	0.29	0.21 (0.05‐0.51)	22	89	0.76 (0.62‐0.90)	0.0003	0.26 (0.19‐0.34)	27	89
APAP LC/MS	0.50 (0.33‐0.67)	0.97	0.14 (0.02‐0.43)	16	88	0.57 (0.41‐0.73)	0.32	0.05 (0.02‐0.11)	7	87
APAP hospital lab	0.55 (0.37‐0.73)	0.78	0.00 (0.00‐0.04)	0	87	0.58 (0.42‐0.73)	0.29	0.09 (0.04‐0.15)	12	87

The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively). Table with ROC‐AUC (area under the curve with 95% CI), sensitivity (at 90% specificity) with 95% CI, and statistical significance for different metabolites measured at pretreatment in the discovery and hospital presentation in the validation cohort. P‐value represents significance level are also presented for each metabolite/biomarker.