Figure 1.

Flow diagram for the modeling framework. Climate and weather at each elevation determine the microclimatic conditions experienced by larvae, pupae, and adults at each site. Microclimate determines developmental rates of larvae and pupae, which determine phenology. The focal trait, wing melanin, is initially determined by elevation differences among sites and is also influenced by microclimate due to the plastic effects of pupal temperatures (Tpupal). We model how wing melanin influences adult temperatures (Tadult) and ultimately performance in given microclimates and then use performance to estimate fitness. Fitness differences among individuals exhibiting variation in wing melanin can generate selection and cause evolutionary changes in the mean and plasticity of wing melanin in the next generation based on Kingsolver and Buckley (2017)