Table 1.

Parameter prior distributions and posterior estimates, and posterior predictive values of reproduction numbers

Parameter	Prior	Posterior median (95% CrI)
${\beta }_L^w$	U[1,10]	1.56 (1.26–9.45)
${\beta }_H^w$	U[1,10]	6.19 (1.85–9.73)
${\beta }_{LL}^b$ (×10−3)	U[0,10]	1.08 (0.75–1.94)
${\beta }_{LH}^b$ (×10−3)	U[0,10]	0.50 (0.08–1.05)
${\beta }_{HH}^b$ (×10−3)	U[0,10]	1.19 (0.06–3.47)
$R_{0,L}^w$	—	1.54 (1.24–9.35)
$R_{0,h}^w$	—	6.11 (1.83–9.63)
$r_{LL}^b$	—	1.49 (1.27–2.01)
$r_{LH}^b$	—	1.09 (0.20–2.36)
$r_{HH}^b$	—	0.32 (0.01–0.91)

β is the number of effective contacts per animal over a 10 d-period—the length of the infection period; ${\beta }_r^w$ refers to PPRV transmission within a village in region r, and ${\beta }_{kr}^b$ to intervillage transmission from region k to r; likewise, $R_{0,r}^w$ is the within-village reproduction number in region r, and $r_{kr}^b$ the village-level reproduction number from region k to r; and U is uniform distribution. Median and 95% credible interval (Crl) were computed.