Table 9. Examples of point predictions with prediction intervals and probabilities to be adult for different patterns of allocated stages per sex. Point predictions of age are based on the mean of the posterior distribution. Notice that the lower limit of the prediction interval in the lowest stage reflects the minimum age in the study sample. Similarly, the upper limit in the highest stages equals the maximum age in the study sample.
| Element | Point prediction | 95% Prediction interval | Probability to be adult | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 28 | 38 | 48 | ||||
| Females | |||||||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15.53 | (14.00–18.33) | 0.0600 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16.89 | (14.00–20.78) | 0.2496 | |
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18.59 | (14.35–22.74) | 0.5760 | |
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 21.88 | (17.76–26.73) | 0.9509 | |
| 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 23.96 | (20.15–27.00) | 0.9956 | |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 24.68 | (21.17–27.00) | 0.9989 | |
| Males | |||||||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15.03 | (14.00–16.68) | 0.0037 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16.90 | (14.35–19.45) | 0.1765 | |
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 17.75 | (15.35–20.33) | 0.3746 | |
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20.17 | (16.79–24.08) | 0.8883 | |
| 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 22.85 | (19.25–27.00) | 0.9926 | |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 23.76 | (20.04–27.00) | 0.9976 | |