Table 2.

Total, direct, and conditional indirect effects of best fitting (simple) multilevel moderated mediation models of stress, negative affect, threat anticipation, aberrant salience, and psychotic experiences^a

	FEP		ARMS		Controls
	adj. B (95% CI)	P	adj. B (95% CI)	P	adj. B (95% CI)	P
Pathways via affective disturbance  Event-related stress, negative affect, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Event-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.007 (-0.018 – 0.033)	0.558	-0.002 (-0.037 – 0.032)	0.900	0.002 (-0.013 – 0.018)	0.789
Indirect effectb (Event-related stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.035 (0.011 – 0.065)	0.011	0.053 (0.035 – 0.074)	<0.001	0.026 (0.015 – 0.039)	<0.001
Total effect	0.042 (0.002 – 0.083)	0.040	0.050 (0.016 – 0.085)	0.005	0.028 (0.005 – 0.050)	0.016
Activity-related stress, negative affect, and psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Activity-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.053 (0.027 – 0.079)	<0.001	0.061 (0.028 – 0.093)	<0.001	0.015 (-0.008 – 0.037)	0.198
Indirect effectb (Activity-related stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.085 (0.055 – 0.122)	<0.001	0.100 (0.066 – 0.138)	<0.001	0.055 (0.037 – 0.077)	<0.001
Total effect	0.138 (0.097 – 0.180)	<0.001	0.161 (0.116 – 0.206)	<0.001	0.070 (0.034 – 0.106)	<0.001
Social stress, negative affect, and psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Social stress → psychotic experiences)	-0.017 (-0.046 – 0.013)	0.262	0.024 (0.001 – 0.046)	0.039	0.012 (-0.005 – 0.029)	0.155
Indirect effectb (Social stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.052 (0.029 – 0.079)	<0.001	0.070 (0.044 – 0.100)	<0.001	0.048 (0.031 – 0.068)	<0.001
Total effect	0.035 (-0.009 – 0.078)	0.115	0.094 (0.060 – 0.127)	<0.001	0.060 (0.030 – 0.089)	<0.001
Pathways via aberrant salience  Event-related stress, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Event-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.058 (0.020 – 0.095)	0.003	0.055 (0.023 – 0.087)	<0.001	0.030 (0.007 – 0.053)	0.010
Indirect effectb (Event-related stress → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	-0.015 (-0.027 – -0.004)	0.011	-0.005 (-0.017 – 0.004)	0.363	-0.002 (-0.006 – 0.002)	0.363
Total effect	0.043 (0.002 – 0.083)	0.038	0.050 (0.015 – 0.085)	0.005	0.028 (0.005 – 0.050)	0.015
Activity-related stress, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences‡	─		─		─
Social stress, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Social stress → psychotic experiences)	0.038 (-0.004 – 0.080)	0.075	0.094 (0.064 – 0.124)	<0.001	0.061 (0.033 – 0.088)	<0.001
Indirect effectb (Social stress → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	-0.003 (-0.015 – 0.008)	0.541	-0.001 (-0.011 – 0.013)	0.891	-0.001 (-0.005 – 0.006)	0.793
Total effect	0.035 (-0.009 – 0.078)	0.115	0.094 (0.060 – 0.127)	<0.001	0.060 (0.030 – 0.089)	<0.001
Negative affect, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Negative affect → psychotic experiences)
Indirect effectb (Negative affect→ aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	0.026 (-0.001 – 0.046)	0.095	0.017 (-0.012 – 0.049)	0.443	0.017 (-0.004 – 0.030)	0.220
Total effect	0.187 (0.114 – 0.346)	<0.001	0.237 (0.128 – 0.346)	<0.001	0.173 (0.096 – 0.251)	<0.001
Threat anticipation, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.144 (0.092 – 0.196)	<0.001	0.117 (0.073 – 0.161)	<0.001	0.091 (0.058 – 0.124)	<0.001
Indirect effectb (Threat anticipation → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	0.004 (-0.008 – 0.022)	0.563	0.002 (-0.009 – 0.017)	0.813	0.008 (0.000 – 0.021)	0.124
Total effect	0.148 (0.089 – 0.208)	<0.001	0.119 (0.070 – 0.167)	<0.001	0.099 (0.062 – 0.137)	<0.001
Pathways via threat anticipation  Event-related stress, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Event-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.029 (-0.005 – 0.064)	0.093	0.034 (0.002 – 0.066)	0.036	0.020 (0.000 – 0.039)	0.047
Indirect effectb (Event-related stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.013 (0.003 – 0.027)	0.034	0.016 (0.007 – 0.027)	0.003	0.008 (0.003 – 0.015)	0.008
Total effect	0.042 (0.002 – 0.083)	0.038	0.050 (0.015 – 0.084)	0.005	0.028 (0.005 – 0.050)	0.015
Activity-related stress, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Activity-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.113 (0.078 – 0.148)	<0.001	0.136 (0.098 – 0.175)	<0.001	0.055 (0.025 – 0.085)	<0.001
Indirect effectb (Activity-related stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.025 (0.011 – 0.043)	0.003	0.024 (0.011 – 0.039)	<0.001	0.015 (0.007 – 0.024)	<0.001
Total effect	0.138 (0.078 – 0.148)	<0.001	0.160 (0.098 – 0.175)	<0.001	0.070 (0.025 – 0.085)	<0.001
Social stress, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Social stress → psychotic experiences)	0.020 (-0.019 – 0.059)	0.320	0.075 (0.045 – 0.104)	<0.001	0.050 (0.026 – 0.075)	<0.001
Indirect effectb (Social stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.015 (0.003 – 0.031)	0.043	0.018 (0.008 – 0.031)	0.001	0.009 (0.003 – 0.017)	0.008
Total effect	0.034 (-0.009 – 0.078)	0.118	0.093 (0.059 – 0.127)	<0.001	0.059 (0.030 – 0.089)	<0.001
Negative affect, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (Negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.315 (0.239 – 0.391)	0.000	0.324 (0.235 – 0.412)	0.000	0.252 (0.188 – 0.316)	0.000
Indirect effectb (Negative affect → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.030 (0.014 – 0.053)	0.002	0.015 (-0.001 – 0.033)	0.072	0.019 (0.009 – 0.031)	0.001
Total effect	0.345 (0.257 – 0.433)	0.000	0.339 (0.250 – 0.428)	0.000	0.271 (0.199 – 0.343)	0.000

Note: FEP, First-Episode Psychosis; ARMS, At-Risk Mental State for psychosis; vs., versus; CI, confidence interval;

^aAdjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, level of education, employment status.

^bDifference in indirect effects across groups (Δ indirect effects)

‡Model estimation did not terminate normally