Table 3.

Total, direct, and conditional indirect effects of multiple multilevel moderated mediation models of stress on psychotic experiences via negative affect, threat anticipation and aberrant salience^a

	FEP		ARMS		Controls
	adj. B (95% CI)	P	adj. B (95% CI)	P	adj. B (95% CI)	P
Event-related stress
Direct effect (Event-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.015 (-0.008 – 0.038)	0.192	-0.005 (-0.030 – 0.021)	0.731	0.000 (-0.013 – 0.013)	0.965
Total indirect effect (Event-related stress)	0.005 (-0.010 – 0.021)	0.574	0.012 (-0.005 – 0.027)	0.124	0.008 (0.001 – 0.016)	0.030
Specific indirect effectsb
Event-related stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences	0.012 (0.001 – 0.025)	0.049	0.017 (0.007 – 0.027)	0.001	0.008 (0.003 – 0.014)	0.002
Event-related stress → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences	-0.012 (-0.023 – -0.004)	0.009	-0.006 (-0.017 – 0.002)	0.207	-0.002 (-0.006 – 0.001)	0.278
Event-related stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences	0.005 (-0.000 – 0.010)	0.072	0.001 (-0.001– 0.004)	0.236	0.002 (-0.000 – 0.003)	0.073
Event-related stress → negative affect → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences	0.000 (-0.000 – 0.001)	0.092	0.000 (-0.000 – 0.001)	0.222	0.000 (0.000 – 0.000)	0.036
Total effect (Event-related stress)	0.020 (-0.010 – 0.050)	0.194	0.008 (-0.021 – 0.037)	0.602	0.008 (-0.007 – 0.023)	0.312
Activity-related stress
Direct effect (Activity-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.051 (0.021 – 0.081)	0.001	0.034 (0.007 – 0.060)	0.014	0.004 (-0.015 – 0.022)	0.708
Total indirect effect (Activity-related stress)	0.058 (0.037 – 0.081)	0.000	0.061 (0.040 – 0.084)	0.000	0.034 (0.022 – 0.048)	0.000
Specific indirect effectsb
Activity-related stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences	0.046 (0.030 – 0.064)	<0.001	0.047 (0.033 – 0.062)	<0.001	0.029 (0.020 – 0.039)	<0.001
Activity-related stress → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences	-0.001 (-0.010 – 0.010)	0.896	0.009 (-0.004 – 0.025)	0.219	0.000 (-0.004 – 0.005)	0.949
Activity-related stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences	0.011 (0.005 – 0.017)	<0.001	0.004 (-0.002 – 0.010)	0.191	0.005 (0.002 – 0.008)	0.004
Activity-related stress → negative affect → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences	0.002 (0.001 – 0.003)	0.003	0.001 (-0.000 – 0.001)	0.201	0.001 (0.000 – 0.001)	0.007
Total effect (Activity-related stress)	0.109 (0.075 – 0.142)	0.000	0.094 (0.061 – 0.128)	0.000	0.038 (0.012 – 0.063)	0.003
Social stress
Direct effect (Social stress → psychotic experiences)	-0.029 (-0.058 – -0.001)	0.044	0.001 (-0.021 – 0.022)	0.962	-0.001 (-0.014 – 0.012)	0.844
Total indirect effect (Social stress)	0.018 (0.004 – 0.031)	0.010	0.013 (-0.004 – 0.031)	0.136	0.019 (0.009 – 0.030)	0.000
Specific indirect effectsb
Social stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences	0.017 (0.008 – 0.028)	0.001	0.018 (0.006 – 0.032)	0.006	0.021 (0.013 – 0.031)	<0.001
Social stress → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences	-0.003 (-0.014 – 0.005)	0.466	-0.006 (-0.016 – 0.004)	0.239	-0.004 (-0.009 – 0.001)	0.129
Social stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences	0.003 (-0.002 – 0.008)	0.220	0.001 (-0.000 – 0.004)	0.285	0.001 (-0.000 – 0.002)	0.326
Social stress → negative affect → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences	0.001 (0.000 – 0.001)	0.009	0.000 (-0.000 – 0.001)	0.201	0.000 (0.000 – 0.001)	0.013
Total effect (Social stress)	-0.012 (-0.044 – 0.021)	0.481	0.014 (-0.013 – 0.041)	0.318	0.018 (0.003 – 0.032)	0.017
Negative affect
Direct effect	0.255 (0.197 – 0.314)	0.000	0.260 (0.192 – 0.327)	0.000	0.220 (0.173 – 0.267)	0.000
Total indirect effect
Negative affect → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences	0.009 (0.004 – 0.015)	0.002	0.003 (−0.001 – 0.007)	0.188	0.004 (0.002 – 0.007)	0.002
Total effect (Negative affect)	0.264 (0.203 – 0.325)	0.000	0.263 (0.196 – 0.329)	0.000	0.224 (0.176 – 0.271)	0.000
Threat anticipation
Direct effect (Threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.075 (0.044 – 0.106)	0.000	0.019 (-0.009 – 0.046)	0.184	0.033 (0.014 – 0.052)	0.001
Aberrant salience
Direct effect (Aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	0.156 (0.105 – 0.207)	0.000	0.210 (0.142 – 0.278)	0.000	0.134 (0.086 – 0.183)	0.000

Note: Overview of total, direct, and indirect effects of significant paths from simple moderated multilevel mediation models (see table 2). FEP, First-Episode Psychosis; ARMS, At-Risk Mental State for psychosis; vs., versus; CI, confidence interval; correlated mediators, r (negative affect, aberrant salience) =-0.02, P=0.667, r (aberrant salience, threat anticipation) =0.34, P=0.001.

^aAdjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, level of education, employment status, area-related stress and outsider status^b Difference in specific indirect effects across groups (Δ indirect effects):