TABLE 1.
The posterior mean (SD) of the mean cognitive decline for each EYO estimated by the cognitive disease progression model using Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational study
| EYO | Posterior Mean (SD) of αEYO | EYO | Posterior Mean (SD) of αEYO |
|---|---|---|---|
| −15 | 0 (0) | 1 | −1.20 (0.18) |
| −14 | −0.07 (0.06) | 2 | −1.40 (0.29) |
| −13 | −0.14 (0.08) | 3 | −1.70 (0.41) |
| −12 | −0.21 (0.09) | 4 | −2.15 (0.44) |
| −11 | −0.27 (0.09) | 5 | −2.66 (0.38) |
| −10 | −0.33 (0.10) | 6 | −2.93 (0.34) |
| −9 | −0.39 (0.10) | 7 | −3.11 (0.38) |
| −8 | −0.46 (0.11) | 8 | −3.37 (0.37) |
| −7 | −0.53 (0.11) | 9 | −3.71 (0.24) |
| −6 | −0.61 (0.12) | 10 | −3.86 (0.24) |
| −5 | −0.68 (0.12) | 11 | −4.07 (0.27) |
| −4 | −0.76 (0.12) | 12 | −4.29 (0.37)a |
| −3 | −0.83 (0.13) | 13 | −6.10 (0.94)a |
| −2 | −0.90 (0.13) | 14 | −7.77 (1.51)a |
| −1 | −0.98 (0.14) | 15 | −9.22 (1.73)a |
| 0 | −1.06 (0.14) |
a
The minimum of this composite score is −4.11, which is achieved around estimated years from symptom onset (EYO) 11 or when all the components have scores of 0. These z-scores are less than the minimum and are model estimated decline that had the monotonic decline continued beyond EYO 11. However, autosomal-dominant Alzheimer’s disease patients rarely if any survive past EYO 10.