Table 6.
Economy-wide impacts of climate change
| Baseline | Global wet | Global dry | Local wet | Local dry | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average annual real per capita absorption growth rate, 2003–2050 (%) | 2.12 | 1.85 | 1.74 | 1.91 | 2.03 |
| Deviation from baseline | – | −0.27 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.09 |
| Average annual undiscounted value of absorption, 2046–2050 (US$ billions, 2003 prices) | 15.86 | 14.12 | 13.42 | 14.51 | 15.21 |
| Deviation from baseline | – | −1.74 | −2.44 | −1.35 | −0.65 |
| Accumulated discounted deviation in absorption from baseline, 2003–2050 (US$ billions, 2003 prices) | – | 4.93 | 7.42 | 4.40 | 2.29 |
| Accrued during 2010s | – | 0.62 | 1.04 | 0.64 | 0.39 |
| Accrued during 2020s | – | 1.03 | 1.57 | 0.94 | 0.45 |
| Accrued during 2030s | – | 1.45 | 2.07 | 1.20 | 0.53 |
| Accrued during 2040s | – | 1.77 | 2.48 | 1.36 | 0.67 |
| Due to crop yields and sea-level rise | – | 0.36 | 1.21 | 0.94 | 1.61 |
| Due to flooding and road damages | – | 4.56 | 6.21 | 3.42 | 0.63 |
| Due to declining hydropower generation | – | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Deviation in average annual real per capita GDP growth rate from baseline, 2003–2050 (%) | −0.27 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.27 |
| Agriculture | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.18 |
| Industry | −0.38 | −0.53 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.38 |
| Services | −0.24 | −0.34 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.24 |
| North region | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.15 |
| Center region | −0.22 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.22 |
| South region | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.22 |
Source: results from the DCGE model