Table 3.

Model Performance of the BCSC and BBD-BC Models

BCSC
Endpoint	N	Concordance Invasive BC (%)	C-statistic (95% CI)	Observed Events	Calibration Predicted Events	Pred./Obs. (95% CI)
Screening Cohort*
5 years	1089	20 (1.8%)	0.59 (0.46, 0.71)	20	26.12	1.31 (0.94, 2.25)
10 years	1089	54 (5.0%)	0.63 (0.56, 0.71)	54	51.02	0.94 (0.85, 1.43)
BBD-BC
Endpoint	N	Concordance Invasive or DCIS BC (%)	C-statistic (95% CI)	Calibration Observed Events	Predicted Events	Pred./Obs. (95% CI)
Screening Cohort*
5 years	1089	27 (2.5%)	0.69 (0.58, 0.80)	27	29.93	1.11 (0.84, 1.77)
10 years	1089	69 (6.3%)	0.66 (0.59, 0.73)	69	57.54	0.83 (0.77, 1.20)
Full BBD Cohort**
5 years	2142	56 (2.6%)	0.68 (0.60, 0.75)	56	49.70	0.89 (0.71, 1.21)
10 years	2142	118 (5.5%)	0.66 (0.60, 0.71)	118	95.34	0.81 (0.70, 1.00)

BCSC= Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium; BBD-BD= Benign Breast Disease to Breast Cancer; DCIS=ductal carcinoma in situ; BC=Breast Cancer; Pred. = Predicted; Obs. = Observed;

^*Screening cohort, n=1089 ages 35–74 and with mammogram;

^**Full cohort, n=2142, ages 18 and up