Table 2.

Simulations evaluating probability of the reversal of F_ST ranking of the magnitude observed for BS11 genes under various evolutionary scenarios. (Both neutral scenarios were explored with 10 000 coalescent simulations, while BS scenarios were evaluated with 500 forward simulations; for details see text. Simulations were performed according to the model in figure 3 with parameter values from the electronic supplementary material, table S3. Neutrality, Ne × 6.8—neutral demography with the effective population size increased to obtain variation comparable to that in BS11 genes; BS11-like and CR-like—genes of the characteristics (length, mutation rate) of balancing selection candidates (BS11) and control (CR) genes. SOD, symmetric overdominance, NFD, negative frequency dependence, diffF_ST, difference in F_ST between Mon–North and North–South divided by the average value; s, selective advantage of a heterozygote (SOD), or the initial selective advantage of a new allele (NFD). p-values—proportions of simulations with diffF_ST lower than observed diffF_ST in BS11-like genes or higher than observed diffF_ST in CR-like genes, significant values are in italics.)

scenario	genes	migration rate	observed diffFST	simulated diffFST		p-value
				percentile
				5th	95th
neutrality	CR-like	0	0.268	0.104	0.299	0.13
neutrality	CR-like	m1	0.268	0.079	0.276	0.0701
neutrality	CR-like	m2	0.268	0.013	0.222	0.0086
neutrality	CR-like	m3	0.268	−0.017	0.192	0.0024
neutrality	BS11-like	0	−0.289	−0.019	0.310	<0.0001
neutrality	BS11-like	m1	−0.289	−0.050	0.285	0.0001
neutrality	BS11-like	m2	−0.289	−0.133	0.227	0.0023
neutrality	BS11-like	m3	−0.289	−0.166	0.195	0.0050
neutrality, Ne × 6.8	BS11-like	0	−0.289	−0.142	0.262	0.0047
neutrality, Ne × 6.8	BS11-like	m1	−0.289	−0.166	0.240	0.0046
neutrality, Ne × 6.8	BS11-like	m2	−0.289	−0.240	0.179	0.0249
neutrality, Ne × 6.8	BS11-like	m3	−0.289	−0.270	0.155	0.0380
BS: moderate SOD, s = 0.05	BS11-like	0	−0.289	−0.112	0.298	0.004
BS: moderate SOD, s = 0.05	BS11-like	m1	−0.289	−0.755	−0.031	0.618
BS: moderate SOD, s = 0.05	BS11-like	m3	−0.289	−1.250	−0.415	0.986
BS: weak SOD, s = 0.02	BS11-like	0	−0.289	−0.045	0.322	<0.002
BS: weak SOD, s = 0.02	BS11-like	m1	−0.289	−0.125	0.276	0.010
BS: weak SOD, s = 0.02	BS11-like	m3	−0.289	−0.356	0.121	0.100
BS: strong NFD, s = 0.5	BS11-like	0	−0.289	−0.182	0.185	0.004
BS: strong NFD, s = 0.5	BS11-like	m1	−0.289	−1.603	−0.680	0.998
BS: strong NFD, s = 0.5	BS11-like	m3	−0.289	−1.656	−0.775	>0.998
BS: moderate NFD, s = 0.05	BS11-like	0	−0.289	−0.112	0.303	0.002
BS: moderate NFD, s = 0.05	BS11-like	m1	−0.289	−0.749	−0.066	0.692
BS: moderate NFD, s = 0.05	BS11-like	m3	−0.289	−1.255	−0.462	0.996
BS: weak NFD, s = 0.02	BS11-like	0	−0.289	−0.084	0.331	<0.002
BS: weak NFD, s = 0.02	BS11-like	m1	−0.289	−0.124	0.296	0.004
BS: weak NFD, s = 0.02	BS11-like	m3	−0.289	−0.341	0.141	0.106