Figure 3.

Group-level model calibration for transition from any starting brain function state to each outcome state. Each graph illustrates on the x-axis the model-estimated (predicted) proportion of transition from any starting brain function state to the corresponding future state, and on the y-axis the observed (actual) proportion from any starting brain function state to the corresponding future state. Perfect calibration is represented by the dashed straight line with a slope of 1 and an intercept of 0. The empirical estimate and 95% upper and lower confidence bounds are represented by solid and dashed lines, respectively. This model, as with the model in Figure 2, shows outstanding calibration when predicting the total number of patients expected to be in normal, delirious, comatose, and discharged states across predicted risk. Calibration remained excellent for mortality; however, this model appears to overpredict mortality at higher predicted mortality probabilities. Once again, the wide confidence levels at these predicted probabilities are indicative of smaller sample sizes.