Table 2.
Model Predictions of the Sizes and Durations of Measles Outbreaks in an Amish Community in Ohio in 2014, With and Without a Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccination Campaigna, and Based on 2 Initial Levels (Lower and Upper Bounds) of Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine Coverage Prior to Initiation of Containment Efforts
| Assumed MMR Vaccine Coverageb | No. of Measles Case-Patientsc | Duration of Measles Outbreakc | Absolute Reduction in No. of Case-Patients and Duration of Outbreak | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaccination Campaign Not Included | Vaccination Campaign Included | Vaccination Campaign Not Included | Vaccination Campaign Included | |||||||||
| No. of Patients | 90% CI | No. of Patients | 90% CI | Duration, days | 90% CI | Duration, days | 90% CI | No. of Patients | 90% CI | Duration, days | 90% CI | |
| 14% (lower bound) | 18,978 | 18,944, 19,003 | 9,430 | 9,109, 9,844 | 213 | 195, 241 | 257 | 201, 308 | 9,548 | 9,128, 9,866 | −44 | −95, 22 |
| 68% (upper bound) | 8,472 | 8,447, 8,489 | 715 | 103, 1,338 | 195 | 179, 223 | 128 | 117, 139 | 7,757 | 7,130, 8,365 | 67 | 48, 98 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; MMR, measles-mumps-rubella.
a County health department clinics offering MMR vaccination were held from day 30 to day 123 of the outbreak; first doses of MMR were delivered to 8,726 unvaccinated persons.
b ≥1-dose MMR coverage.
c Median values and 90% CIs generated from 500 model simulations.