Table 4.

Estimated coefficients, their estimated standard errors, and 95% credible intervals for models of the temporal trends in Melitaea cinxia population connectivity, proportion of colonizing overwintering nests, proportion of SINs, and patches within SINs occupied by C. melitaearum

Covariate	Est. coef.	Est. SE	95% Cr.I.
			Lower	Upper
Temporal trend in log(population connectivity)
Intercept	0.824	0.384	0.187	1.446
Year	0.002	0.031	−0.047	0.053
AR[1]	0.412	0.064	0.310	0.522
σ(S intercept)	1.994	0.316	1.521	2.553
σ(Year|SIN slope)	0.142	0.031	0.093	0.194
σres	1.227	0.044	1.157	1.303
Temporal trend in the proportion of colonizing overwintering nests
Intercept	1.252	0.003	0.886	1.639
Year	−0.052	0.000	−0.080	−0.024
Prop. patches occupied(t‐1)	−5.759	0.005	−6.547	−4.971
AR[1]	0.218	0.001	0.090	0.336
σ(SIN intercept)	0.685	0.002	0.453	0.970
σ(Year|SIN slope)	0.037	0.000	0.003	0.074
σres	0.975	0.001	0.890	1.070
Temporal trend in the proportion of SINs occupied by C. melitaearum
Intercept	−3.505	0.005	−4.352	‐2.734
Year	0.004	0.001	−0.079	0.086
AR[1]	0.714	0.002	0.364	0.986
σ(SIN intercept)	0.607	0.006	0.039	1.693
σ(Year|SIN slope)	0.082	0.001	0.019	0.190
σres	0.906	0.002	0.694	1.162
Temporal trend in proportion of patches within each SIN occupied by C. melitaearum
Intercept	−1.181	0.006	−2.222	−0.287
Year	−0.016	0.000	−0.087	0.061
AR[1]	0.421	0.003	−0.125	0.927
σres	0.758	0.002	0.451	1.203

AR[1]: first‐order autocorrelation term; σ_{(SIN intercept)}: standard deviation of random intercepts; σ_{(Year|SIN slope)}: standard deviation of random slopes of the temporal trend; σ_res: residual standard deviation.