eTable 2. All-cause mortality rates and cancer-specific mortality rates (per 100 000 person-years) and estimated effect of screening in the eligible population assuming 100% participation in the UK (England & Wales) and Germany in 2015*.
| Number of deaths and percentages | Crude mortality rates |
Expected all-cause mortality rate with screening |
|||||||
| Population | All deaths |
Cancer specific deaths |
% | Total |
Cancer specific rate |
Rate | Change (%) | Rate ratio | |
| Sigmoidoscopy screening (men and women, 55 – 64 years) and colorectal cancer death (RR = 0.73) | |||||||||
| England & Wales | |||||||||
| 55–59 | 3 475 497 | 16 693 | 735 | 4.4 | 480 | 21.1 | 475 | –1.2 | 0.99 |
| 60–64 | 3 089 643 | 24 093 | 1015 | 4.2 | 780 | 32.9 | 771 | –1.1 | 0.99 |
| 55–64 | 6 565 140 | 40 786 | 1750 | 4.3 | 621 | 26,7 | 614 | –1.2 | 0.99 |
| Germany | |||||||||
| 55–59 | 5 945 895 | 34 940 | 1257 | 3.6 | 588 | 21.1 | 582 | –1.0 | 0.99 |
| 60–64 | 5 177 524 | 47 758 | 1815 | 3.8 | 922 | 35.1 | 913 | –1.0 | 0.99 |
| 55–64 | 11 123 419 | 82 698 | 3072 | 3.7 | 743 | 27.6 | 736 | –1.0 | 0.99 |
| Mammography screening (women, 50 – 69 years) and breast cancer death (RR = 0.80) | |||||||||
| England & Wales | |||||||||
| 50–54 | 2 039 645 | 5094 | 728 | 14.3 | 250 | 35.7 | 243 | –2.9 | 0.97 |
| 55–59 | 1 757 445 | 6714 | 736 | 11.0 | 382 | 41.9 | 374 | –2.2 | 0.98 |
| 60–64 | 1 576 695 | 9675 | 775 | 8.0 | 614 | 49.2 | 604 | –1.6 | 0.98 |
| 65–69 | 1 652 275 | 15 632 | 1006 | 6.4 | 946 | 60.9 | 934 | –1.3 | 0.99 |
| 50–69 | 7 026 060 | 37 115 | 3245 | 8.7 | 528 | 46.2 | 519 | –1.7 | 0.98 |
| Germany | |||||||||
| 50–54 | 3 422 898 | 8524 | 1042 | 12.2 | 249 | 30.4 | 243 | –2.4 | 0.98 |
| 55–59 | 2 981 779 | 12 006 | 1243 | 10.4 | 403 | 41.7 | 394 | –2.1 | 0.98 |
| 60–64 | 2 661 828 | 16 773 | 1420 | 8.5 | 630 | 53.3 | 619 | –1.7 | 0.98 |
| 65–69 | 2 167 248 | 20 788 | 1627 | 7.8 | 959 | 75.1 | 944 | –1.6 | 0.98 |
| 50–69 | 11 233 753 | 58 091 | 5332 | 9.2 | 517 | 47.5 | 508 | –1.8 | 0.98 |
| PSA screening (men, 55 – 69 years) and prostate cancer death (RR = 0.79) | |||||||||
| England & Wales | |||||||||
| 55–59 | 1 718 052 | 9979 | 161 | 1.6 | 581 | 9.4 | 579 | –0.3 | 1.00 |
| 60–64 | 1 512 948 | 14 418 | 372 | 2.6 | 953 | 24.6 | 948 | –0.5 | 0.99 |
| 65–69 | 1 560 546 | 22 346 | 842 | 3.8 | 1432 | 54.0 | 1421 | –0.8 | 0.99 |
| 55–69 | 4 791 546 | 46 743 | 1375 | 2.9 | 976 | 28.7 | 970 | –0.6 | 0.99 |
| Germany | |||||||||
| 55–59 | 2 964 116 | 22 934 | 260 | 1.1 | 774 | 8.8 | 772 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| 60–64 | 2 515 696 | 30 985 | 625 | 2.0 | 1232 | 24.8 | 1226 | –0.4 | 1.00 |
| 65–69 | 2 003 151 | 35 868 | 964 | 2.7 | 1791 | 48.1 | 1780 | –0.6 | 0.99 |
| 55–69 | 7 482 963 | 89 787 | 1849 | 2.1 | 1200 | 24.7 | 1195 | –0.4 | 1.00 |
| Skin cancer screening (men and women, 35 – 85+ years) and skin melanoma death (RR = 0.50) | |||||||||
| England & Wales | |||||||||
| 35–39 | 3 641 593 | 3326 | 38 | 1.1 | 91 | 1.0 | 91 | –0.6 | 0.99 |
| 40–44 | 3 826 336 | 5243 | 63 | 1.2 | 137 | 1.6 | 136 | –0.6 | 0.99 |
| 45–49 | 4 103 459 | 8405 | 77 | 0.9 | 205 | 1.9 | 204 | –0.5 | 1.00 |
| 50–54 | 4 030 657 | 12 458 | 116 | 0.9 | 309 | 2.9 | 308 | –0.5 | 1.00 |
| 55–59 | 3 475 497 | 16 693 | 133 | 0.8 | 480 | 3.8 | 478 | –0.4 | 1.00 |
| 60–64 | 3 089 643 | 24 093 | 183 | 0.8 | 780 | 5.9 | 777 | –0.4 | 1.00 |
| 65–69 | 3 212 821 | 37 978 | 272 | 0.7 | 1182 | 8.5 | 1178 | –0.4 | 1.00 |
| 70–74 | 2 419 031 | 47 385 | 288 | 0.6 | 1959 | 11.9 | 1953 | –0.3 | 1.00 |
| 75–79 | 1 919 669 | 64 792 | 292 | 0.5 | 3375 | 15.2 | 3368 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| 80–84 | 1 410 234 | 87 108 | 297 | 0.3 | 6177 | 21.1 | 6166 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| 85+ | 1 374 590 | 212 146 | 395 | 0.2 | 15 433 | 28.7 | 15 419 | –0.1 | 1.00 |
| 35–85+ | 32 503 530 | 519 627 | 2154 | 0.4 | 1599 | 6.6 | 1595 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| Germany | |||||||||
| 35–39 | 4 855 188 | 3613 | 39 | 1.1 | 74 | 0.8 | 74 | –0.5 | 0.99 |
| 40–44 | 5 087 191 | 6083 | 60 | 1.0 | 120 | 1.2 | 119 | –0.5 | 1.00 |
| 45–49 | 6 623 073 | 13 409 | 153 | 1.1 | 202 | 2.3 | 201 | –0.6 | 0.99 |
| 50–54 | 6 905 717 | 24 213 | 183 | 0.8 | 351 | 2.6 | 349 | –0.4 | 1.00 |
| 55–59 | 5 945 895 | 34 940 | 207 | 0.6 | 588 | 3.5 | 586 | –0.3 | 1.00 |
| 60–64 | 5 177 524 | 47 758 | 201 | 0.4 | 922 | 3.9 | 920 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| 65–69 | 4 170 399 | 56 656 | 261 | 0.5 | 1359 | 6.3 | 1355 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| 70–74 | 4 197 712 | 87 833 | 383 | 0.4 | 2092 | 9.1 | 2088 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| 75–79 | 4 189 609 | 139 965 | 561 | 0.4 | 3341 | 13.4 | 3334 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| 80–84 | 2 460 564 | 156 003 | 424 | 0.3 | 6340 | 17.2 | 6332 | –0.1 | 1.00 |
| 85+ | 2 176 225 | 343 908 | 552 | 0.2 | 15 803 | 25.4 | 15 790 | –0.1 | 1.00 |
| 35–85+ | 51 789 097 | 914 381 | 3024 | 0.3 | 1766 | 5.8 | 1763 | –0.2 | 1.00 |
| Hypothetical screening for ischemic heart disease (men and women, 45–69 years) and death due to ischemic heart disease (RR = 0.75) | |||||||||
| England & Wales | |||||||||
| 45 | 4 103 459 | 8405 | 896 | 10.7 | 205 | 21.8 | 199 | –2.7 | 0.97 |
| 50 | 4 030 657 | 12 458 | 1579 | 12.7 | 309 | 39.2 | 299 | –3.2 | 0.97 |
| 55 | 3 475 497 | 16 693 | 2186 | 13.1 | 480 | 62.9 | 465 | –3.3 | 0.97 |
| 60 | 3 089 643 | 24 093 | 3208 | 13.3 | 780 | 103.8 | 754 | –3.3 | 0.97 |
| 65 | 3 212 821 | 37 978 | 4818 | 12.7 | 1182 | 150.0 | 1145 | –3.2 | 0.97 |
| 45–69 | 17 912 077 | 99 627 | 12 687 | 12.7 | 556 | 70.8 | 538 | –3.2 | 0.97 |
| Germany | |||||||||
| 45 | 6 623 073 | 13 409 | 1079 | 8.0 | 202 | 16.3 | 198 | –2.0 | 0.98 |
| 50 | 6 905 717 | 24 213 | 2192 | 9.1 | 351 | 31.7 | 343 | –2.3 | 0.98 |
| 55 | 5 945 895 | 34 940 | 3502 | 10.0 | 588 | 58.9 | 573 | –2.5 | 0.97 |
| 60 | 5 177 524 | 47 758 | 5111 | 10.7 | 922 | 98.7 | 898 | –2.7 | 0.97 |
| 65 | 4 170 399 | 56 656 | 6394 | 11.3 | 1359 | 153.3 | 1320 | –2.8 | 0.97 |
| 45–69 | 28 822 608 | 176 976 | 18 278 | 10.3 | 614 | 63.4 | 598 | –2.6 | 0.97 |
* Cancer-specific deaths: sigmoidoscopy—colorectal cancer deaths; mammography screening—breast cancer deaths; PSA screening—prostate cancer deaths; skin cancer screening—skin melanoma deaths; change (%) compares the all-cause mortality rate without screening with that rate with screening; the rate ratio [RR] expresses the ratio of the all-cause mortality rate with screening with that rate without screening
PSA, prostate-specific antigen