Figure 3.

Bias (mean difference between the parameter value estimated via simulations and the input parameter value) of parameter estimates as a function of homogeneously increasing infection state uncertainty. Error bars represent 95% CI. The increasing state uncertainty on the x-axis corresponds to a decreasing probability of assigning an infection state. We used the following notations for the parameters: ϕ_S, ϕ_I, and ϕ_R for the survival probability of individuals in S, I, and R states, β for the infection probability, p_S, p_I and p_R for the detection probability and δ_S, δ_I and δ_R for the assignment probability of individuals in S, I, and R states, respectively.