. 2017 May 19;2(1):2381468317709476. doi: 10.1177/2381468317709476

Table 2.

Transition Probabilities Used to Inform Monte Carlo Microsimulation Model

	Probability	Range	Source
Per cycle probabilities
Probability of recurrence after radical prostatectomy
Adjuvant radiotherapy	N/A
Salvage radiotherapy	0.010	0–0.1	Composite^a
Probability of biochemical recurrence following radiotherapy
Adjuvant radiotherapy	0.005	0–0.05	Composite^a
Salvage radiotherapy	0.015	0–0.05	Composite^a
Probability of metastasis following recurrence after radiotherapy
Adjuvant radiotherapy	0.0018	0–0.01	Composite^a
Salvage radiotherapy	0.0018	0–0.01	Composite^a
Probability of prostate cancer death following metastasis
Adjuvant radiotherapy	0.00585	0–0.01	Composite^a
Salvage radiotherapy	0.00585	0–0.01	Composite^a
Probability of death from other causes	Age-dependent	0–0.3	Statistics Canada
Probability of developing new erectile dysfunction, after erectile function regained (age-related erectile dysfunction)	Age-dependent		Johannes, J Urol (2000)
Probability of regaining erectile function after surgery^b	0.066	0–0.1	Rabanni, J Urol (2000)
Probability of developing new incontinence, after continence regained (age-related incontinence)	0		Assumption
Probability of regaining continence after surgery^c	0.037	0–0.1	Suardi, Eur Urol (2014)
Probability of bowel dysfunction	0.0013	0–0.1	Alibhai, JCO (2003)
Instantaneous probabilities
Probability of erectile dysfunction immediately post–radical prostatectomy	0.77		Hayes, JAMA (2010)
Probability of incontinence immediately post–radical prostatectomy	0.5		Sacco, BJU Int (2006)

^a.

Derivation of the composite estimates is provided in Supplementary Table 1.

^b.

May recover for first 12 months following radical prostatectomy.

^c.

May recover for first 24 months following radical prostatectomy.