Table 2.
Key model inputs for the base case
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Mean FEV1 for patients at the start of the model, % | 40 |
| Rate of moderate exacerbations in patients receiving triple inhaled therapy (95% CI) | 0.84 (0.77–0.92) |
| Rate of severe exacerbations in patients receiving triple inhaled therapy (95% CI) | 0.37 (0.32–0.43) |
| Rate of moderate exacerbations in patients receiving triple inhaled therapy + ROF (95% CI) | 0.77 (0.70–0.85) |
| Rate of severe exacerbations in patients receiving triple inhaled therapy + ROF (95% CI) | 0.32 (0.27–0.37) |
| Rate of moderate exacerbations in patients with ≥1 prior hospitalization receiving triple inhaled therapy (95% CI) | 0.77 (0.65–0.91) |
| Rate of severe exacerbations in patients with ≥1 prior hospitalization receiving triple inhaled therapy (95% CI) | 0.73 (0.60–0.89) |
| Rate of moderate exacerbations in patients with ≥1 prior hospitalization receiving triple inhaled therapy + ROF (95% CI) | 0.66 (0.56–0.79) |
| Rate of severe exacerbations in patients with ≥1 prior hospitalization receiving triple inhaled therapy + ROF (95% CI) | 0.48 (0.39–0.60) |
| FEV1 decline per year for patients with COPD, mL (± SEM) | 52 (±0.08) |
| Standardized mortality ratio for background mortality (excluding hospital deaths) for patients in the severe COPD state (SEM; 95% CI)10 | 2.5 (0.62; 1.4–3.9) |
| Standardized mortality ratio for background mortality (excluding hospital deaths) for patients in the very severe COPD state (SEM; 95% CI)10 | 3.85 (0.76; 2.5–5.5) |
| Hospital case fatality rates in patients aged 72 years, % (SEM)25 | 15.3 (0.09) |
| Utility for severe COPD (SEM; 95% CI)a, 22 | 0.75 (0.01; 0.73–0.77) |
| Utility for very severe COPD (SEM; 95% CI)a, 22 | 0.65 (0.03; 0.60–0.70) |
| Disutility for moderate exacerbation (SEM; 95% CI)23 | −0.017 (0.002; −0.021, −0.012) |
| Disutility for severe exacerbation (SEM; 95% CI)23 | −0.048 (0.009; −0.065, −0.031) |
| Monthly cost of ROF, £b | 38.24 |
| Monthly cost of ICS/LABA, £b | 39.51 |
| Monthly cost of LAMA, £b | 33.97 |
| Monthly maintenance costs for severe COPD, £b | 32.57 |
| Monthly maintenance costs for very severe COPD, £b | 106.90 |
| Average cost of moderate exacerbation, £b | 103.85 |
| Average cost of severe exacerbation, £b | 1,724.43 |
Notes:
a
Utilities were derived using UK general population preference weights.
b
Drug costs were taken from the British National Formulary.16
Abbreviations: FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; ICS, inhaled corticosteroid; LABA, long-acting ß2-agonist; LAMA, long-acting muscarinic receptor agonist; ROF, roflumilast; SEM, standard error of the mean.