Table S3.

Probability distributions used in probabilistic sensitivity analyses

Parameter	Distribution
FEV1 decline per annum	Gamma
Covariates in the exacerbation regression equations	Normal
Rates of treatment-emergent adverse events and treatment-emergent severe adverse events	Beta
Resource use, except prednisolone use, hospital admission and ambulance transport	Beta or gamma
Unit costs, except spirometry, influenza vaccination and oxygen therapy	Gamma
COPD health state utilities and COPD exacerbation disutilities	Beta
Standardized mortality ratios	Gamma
Case fatality rate for severe exacerbations	Beta

Note: For parameterization, alpha and beta were calculated from the mean and standard error for all parameters except covariates in the exacerbation regression equations, for which a covariance matrix was used.

Abbreviation: FEV₁, forced expiratory volume in 1 second.