Fig. 4.

Probability of potential community shift from macroalgae to corals based on predicted shift rates and climate velocity. (A and D) Total probability of macroalgae-to-corals shifts, probability of the community shift being driven by (B and E) competition with corals, and (C and F) deforestation by herbivorous fishes. (A–C) Prediction based on historical (1970–2009) and (D–F) near-future climates (2009–2035). Inset histograms represent frequency distribution of probabilities with their mean value. Probabilities of shifts were obtained from the Bayesian posterior distributions of the relative difference in the predicted shift rates among taxa with the coupled climate–current model (SI Appendix, Fig. S5). The darkened area in the north coast in A–C covers the region where no observed macroalgal–coral shift was detected. Calculations were restricted to coastal grids, since the study species inhabit coastal environments. Figures were spatially interpolated to 50 km from the coast using an inverse distance-weighted method to aid visualization.