Table. Descriptive analysis of Mexico and its States.
| State | Total population | Projection of the number of deaths from traffic injuries for 2020 | Observed deathsa | Prevented deathsb | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2020 | Original method | ARIMA model | 2010 | 2015 | Original method | ARIMA | ||||
| Forecasting | Specification | AIC | BIC | ||||||||
| National | 114,255,559 | 127,091,642 | 19,810 | 20,984 | AR(1) S(12) MA(1 12) | -249 | -234 | 16,559 | 16,039 | 7,555 | 10,856 |
| Aguascalientes | 1,195,788 | 1,369,306 | 267 | 364 | AR(1) S(12) MA(1 12) | 214 | 229 | 216 | 200 | 145 | 347 |
| Baja California | 3,224,844 | 3,729,225 | 335 | 139 | AR(1 2) S(12) MA(1 2 12) | 63 | 83 | 271 | 464 | 0 | 0 |
| Baja California Sur | 649,617 | 878,830 | 171 | 204 | AR(1) S(12) MA(1 3 4 12) | 362 | 383 | 130 | 131 | 142 | 165 |
| Campeche | 836,748 | 974,877 | 101 | 138 | AR(1) S(12) MA(1 12) | 246 | 260 | 96 | 136 | 0 | 34 |
| Coahuila | 2,782,013 | 3,129,782 | 399 | 349 | AR(5) S(12) MA(5 12) | 107 | 122 | 371 | 312 | 0 | 0 |
| Colima | 658,910 | 782,831 | 161 | 164 | AR(9) S(12) MA(9 12) | 234 | 248 | 112 | 132 | 55 | 46 |
| Chiapas | 4,903,754 | 5,568,648 | 563 | 267 | AR(1 2 12) S(12) MA(1 12) | 7 | 27 | 171 | 668 | 0 | 0 |
| Chihuahua | 3,525,273 | 3,882,739 | 897 | 980 | AR(1 12) S(12) MA(1 2 12) | 157 | 177 | 801 | 506 | 881 | 1,049 |
| Mexico City | 8,944,599 | 8,738,914 | 656 | 707 | AR(1) S(12) MA(1 12) | -73 | -59 | 1,026 | 768 | 96 | 227 |
| Durango | 1,669,814 | 1,847,547 | 544 | 539 | AR(10 11) S(12) MA(10 11 12) | 174 | 194 | 319 | 388 | 243 | 83 |
| Guanajuato | 5,558,502 | 6,033,559 | 1,125 | 1,238 | AR(1 11 12) S(12) MA(1 11 12) | 82 | 105 | 1,012 | 935 | 508 | 823 |
| Guerrero | 3,444,265 | 3,657,305 | 481 | 410 | AR(1) S(12) MA(1 12) | 62 | 76 | 372 | 458 | 0 | 0 |
| Hidalgo | 2,690,086 | 3,044,937 | 575 | 589 | AR(3) S(12) MA(3 12) | 114 | 128 | 348 | 395 | 283 | 232 |
| Jalisco | 7,442,625 | 8,363,277 | 1,678 | 1,787 | AR(9 12) S(12) MA(9 12) | -17 | 0 | 1,516 | 1,236 | 1,037 | 1,471 |
| State of Mexico | 15,571,680 | 18,075,065 | 2,048 | 2,104 | AR(4 5 7) S(12) MA(5 12) | -198 | -178 | 1,784 | 1,572 | 848 | 1,021 |
| Michoacán | 4,420,270 | 4,741,317 | 971 | 1,229 | AR(1 3 12) S(12) MA(1 3 12) | 99 | 122 | 865 | 497 | 1,363 | 2,000 |
| Morelos | 1,803,340 | 2,030,580 | 198 | 253 | AR(1 12) S(12) MA(1 12) | 159 | 177 | 203 | 238 | 0 | 111 |
| Nayarit | 1,108,861 | 1,333,853 | 348 | 496 | AR(2) S(12) MA(9 12) | 315 | 330 | 301 | 213 | 309 | 638 |
| Nuevo Leon | 4,723,272 | 5,440,278 | 594 | 763 | AR(1 2 11 12) S(12) MA(1 2 3 12) | 31 | 60 | 325 | 640 | 0 | 0 |
| Oaxaca | 3,868,108 | 4,127,899 | 661 | 802 | AR() S(12) MA(10 12) | 71 | 83 | 595 | 543 | 508 | 873 |
| Puebla | 5,863,823 | 6,481,536 | 733 | 820 | AR(11) S(12) MA(11 12) | 13 | 28 | 734 | 788 | 96 | 280 |
| Querétaro | 1,848,191 | 2,147,765 | 457 | 584 | AR(4) S(12) MA(4) | 243 | 255 | 416 | 327 | 291 | 586 |
| Quintana Roo | 1,350,945 | 1,798,603 | 161 | 69 | AR(1 10) S(12) MA(1 10 12) | 206 | 226 | 130 | 176 | 7 | 0 |
| San Luis Potosí | 2,616,459 | 2,868,906 | 428 | 640 | AR(1) S(12) MA(1 3 7 12) | 139 | 159 | 445 | 450 | 0 | 342 |
| Sinaloa | 2,851,334 | 3,105,704 | 1,060 | 852 | AR(1 2 5) S(12) MA(1 2 5 12) | 130 | 156 | 684 | 688 | 557 | 85 |
| Sonora | 2,727,032 | 3,125,865 | 818 | 990 | AR(3) S(12) MA(1 12) | 153 | 168 | 672 | 480 | 768 | 1,173 |
| Tabasco | 2,252,641 | 2,498,558 | 782 | 940 | AR(4 12) S(12) MA(4 12) | 87 | 105 | 576 | 654 | 112 | 501 |
| Tamaulipas | 3,334,664 | 3,735,589 | 442 | 533 | AR(1 12) S(12) MA(1 11) | 178 | 196 | 546 | 613 | 0 | 131 |
| Tlaxcala | 1,186,143 | 1,363,576 | 236 | 199 | AR(3) S(12) MA(1) | 292 | 304 | 182 | 200 | 56 | 0 |
| Veracruz | 7,712,247 | 8,328,389 | 1,002 | 1,109 | AR(1 2 12) S(12) MA(1 2 3 12) | -51 | -25 | 650 | 576 | 820 | 1,235 |
| Yucatán | 1,980,691 | 2,252,505 | 364 | 482 | AR(3 5) S(12) MA(5 12) | 120 | 137 | 287 | 281 | 211 | 450 |
| Zacatecas | 1,509,020 | 1,633,878 | 355 | 393 | AR(5) S(12) MA(5 12) | 252 | 267 | 403 | 374 | 0 | 32 |
ARIMA: Autoregressive integrated moving average; AIC: Akaike information criterion; BIC: Bayesian Information Criterion; AR: autoregressive component; S: seasonality; MA: moving average component
a It includes observations without month of death.
b It corresponds to the number of potentially avoided deaths between 2011 and 2015.