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. 2018 Sep 3;3(4):e000801. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2018-000801

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Effects of the three covariates identified in the final models for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. We used the threshold for the highest sum of sensitivity and specificity as a cut-off for the marginal effect on logit(p) and generated maps indicating areas where, according to that variable, the vector is predicted to be present. Panel (A) shows the effects of accessibility where very inaccessible areas hinder establishment for both species. Ae. albopictus is however able to establish in less accessible areas in comparison with Ae. aegypti, being less anthropophilic. Panel (B) shows the effects of temperature on Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Ae. albopictus is able to occupy almost the entire range of Ae. aegypti and shows extension beyond these regions into cooler areas. Panel (C) shows that absolute humidity affects Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus similarly.