Figure 4.

Pseudo-prospective seizure prediction results for the held-out data. (A–C) Seizure prediction performances for Patients 1–3, respectively, for all competition teams considered in the held-out evaluation. The results are compared to circadian, periodic, and random prediction, and to the original NeuroVista trial performance. The y- and x-axes correspond to sensitivity and proportion of time in warning (i.e. time in ‘red light’ or high-seizure-risk), respectively. For the different teams, data points correspond to different preictal probability thresholds and only data points surviving correction for multiple comparisons are plotted. The legend in A applies to A–C with teams listed in descending rank on the private leader board. Error bars for the periodic predictor indicate the ranges of performance over all phases. (D–F) Low-seizure-risk advisory performance for Patients 1–3, respectively, for all teams considered in the held-out evaluation as well as circadian prediction. The y- and x-axes correspond to proportion of time in warning and proportion of time in low-risk (i.e. time in ‘blue light’), respectively. The colour bar in D indicates the proportion of seizures occurring during low risk and applies to D–F. The purple vertical lines and numerical values overlaid on the subplots in D–F provide, for a proportion of time in warning of 0.25, the maximum proportion of time in low-risk for which the proportion of seizures occurring in low-risk is at most 0.05.