Table 4:

Model fit, discrimination, calibration, and reclassification indices in 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction based on established CVD risk factors^* (Model A) and on established CVD risk factors plus hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and parity (Model B)

	Model A: Without HDP and Parity	Model B: With HDP and Parity	P Value†
Overall
Model Fit
BIC	15,435	15,464	0.12
Discrimination
C-index	0.691	0.693	---
C-difference	---	0.002	0.31
Calibration
Hosmer-Lemeshow P value	0.35	0.05	---
Reclassification
NRI‡, %	---	0.4	0.26
IDI, %	---	0.02	<0.001
Ages 40–49
Model Fit
BIC	7,866	7,888	0.03
Discrimination
C-index	0.669	0.673	---
C-difference	---	0.005	0.29
Calibration
Hosmer-Lemeshow P value	0.63	0.31	---
Reclassification
NRI‡, %	---	-0.003	0.99
IDI, %	---	0.04	<0.001
Ages 50–59
Model Fit
BIC	6,658	6,691	0.99
Discrimination
C-index	0.677	0.677	---
C-difference	---	0.000	0.90
Calibration
Hosmer-Lemeshow P value	0.75	0.87	---
Reclassification
NRI‡, %	---	0.6	0.13
IDI, %	—	0.006	0.04

Abbreviations: BIC: (Schwarz) Bayesian information criterion. NRI: net reclassification improvement. IDI: integrated discrimination improvement. CVD: cardiovascular disease. HDP: hypertensive disorder of pregnancy.

* Established risk factors include age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, anti-hypertensive medication use, current smoking, and diabetes.

^†Based on likelihood ratio test for comparison of model fit and 1,000 bootstrap samples for comparison of C-indices and reclassification statistics

^‡Low risk: <5%, Intermediate risk: 5%-<10%, and High risk: >10%