TABLE 2—
Estimated Effects of Individual Interventions Over 10 Years: United States, 2016–2025
| Intervention | Mean Changea Compared With the Status Quo | ||||
| Discounted Net Present LYs,b No. in Thousands (%) | Discounted Net Present QALYs,b No. in Thousands (%) | Pill Deaths, No. (%) | Heroin Deaths, No. (%) | Total Opioid Deaths, No. (%) | |
| Acute pain prescribing | 500 (0.007) | −450 (−0.007) | −6 100 (−3.6) | −1 900 (−0.6) | −8 000 (−1.6) |
| Prescribing for transitioning pain | 80 (0.001) | 180 (0.003) | −2 600 (−1.5) | 1 500 (0.5) | −1 000 (−0.2) |
| Chronic pain prescribing | 40 (0.001) | 670 (0.010) | −24 400 (−14.2) | 28 200 (8.2) | 3 800 (0.7) |
| Drug rescheduling | −920 (−0.014) | 990 (0.015) | −103 800 (−60.7) | 146 600 (42.8) | 42 800 (8.3) |
| PMP | −1 780 (−0.027) | −1 450 (−0.022) | −47 800 (−28.0) | 90 200 (26.3) | 42 300 (8.2) |
| Drug reformulation | 650 (0.010) | 2 000 (0.030) | −43 300 (−25.3) | 39 400 (11.5) | −3 900 (−0.8) |
| Excess opioid disposal | 210 (0.003) | 510 (0.008) | −7 900 (−4.6) | 5 500 (1.6) | −2 400 (−0.5) |
| Naloxone availability | 790 (0.012) | 670 (0.010) | −8 400 (−4.9) | −12 700 (−3.7) | −21 200 (−4.1) |
| Needle exchange | 210 (0.003) | 180 (0.003) | 0 (0.0) | −5 900 (−1.7) | −5 900 (−1.1) |
| MAT | 560 (0.008) | 940 (0.014) | −2 900 (−1.7) | −9 600 (−2.8) | −12 500 (−2.4) |
| Psychosocial treatment | 440 (0.007) | 650 (0.010) | −1 600 (−0.9) | −6 000 (−1.7) | −7 500 (−1.5) |
Note. LY = life year; MAT = medication-assisted treatment; PMP = prescription monitoring program; QALY = quality-adjusted life year.
a
Ranges over the 10 base cases are shown in Table H (available as supplement to the online version of this article at http://www.ajph.org).
b
Discounted to 2016.