Table 1. Performance of baseline and optimized surveillance systems.
Candidate sources | Selected sources | RMSE (%ILI) | PWE (weeks) | PME (%ILI) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | [Min, Max] | Mean | [Min, Max] | Mean | [Min, Max] | ||
ILINet |
|
0.66 | [0.26,1.10] | 2.43 | [0, 6] | 0.24 | [0.008,0.71] |
ILINet & WHO |
|
0.63 | [0.26,0.98] | 2.31 | [0, 6] | 0.24 | [0.009,0.66] |
All |
|
0.56 | [0.21,0.96] | 1.75 | [0, 6] | 0.19 | [0.04, 0.39] |
All national (US) |
|
0.60 | [0.26,0.98] | 2.12 | [0, 6] | 0.21 | [0.02, 0.40] |
All national without ILINet |
|
0.64 | [0.18, 1.30] | 2.37 | [0, 8] | 0.21 | [0.002,0.45] |
All national without ILINet & WHO |
|
0.87 | [0.29,1.75] | 10.81 | [0, 19] | 0.44 | [0.15,0.71] |
Data sources were selected based on accuracy (RMSE) of 16 out-of-sample retrospective flu season forecasts (1997-2014, excluding the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic), and listed in order of selection. All and National (US) includes 453 and 13 candidate data sources, respectively. Mean, minimum, and maximum values are calculated over the 16 seasons.