Fig. 4.

Comparison of goodness-of-fit for different mutation rate estimation strategies. For each mutation type and each model i, we calculated $\Delta {\mathrm{AIC}}_i={\mathrm{AIC}}_i-{\mathrm{AIC}}_{\min }$ as a measure of relative model performance, with lower values of ΔAIC indicating better fit to the GoNL/ITMI de novo mutation data. ΔAIC is shown on the horizontal axis on an arcsinh scale. For each mutation type, the best-fitting model thus has a ΔAIC = 0. Models with ΔAIC < 10 (grey-shaded area) are considered comparable to the optimal model, whereas models with ΔAIC > 10 are considered to explain substantially less variation than the optimal model⁶⁷