Table 3. Development cost assumptions per phase per archetype.

Archetype		Cost estimates per phase ($, Millions)
		Preclinical		Phase 1		Phase 2		Phase 3
		Lower bound, Upper bound	Point estimate	Lower bound, Upper bound	Point estimate	Lower bound, Upper bound	Point estimate	Lower bound, Upper bound	Point estimate
Vaccine	Simple	3.3, 10.0	6.7	1.8, 2.7	2.2	7.4, 19.0	13.2	56.6, 165.6	111.1
	Complex	8.3, 24.9	16.6	1.9, 3.0	2.5	7.8, 20.0	13.9	67.9, 198.7	133.3
New Chemical Entity (NCE)	Simple	2.5, 7.5	5.0	1.8, 2.7	2.2	3.7, 7.9	5.8	11.5, 54.1	32.8
	Innovative	5.0, 10.0	7.5	4.4, 5.3	4.8	3.9, 8.3	6.1	12.1, 55.4	34.5
	Complex	7.5, 12.5	10.0	6.9, 7.9	7.4	4.1, 8.7	6.4	12.6, 59.6	36.1
Repurposed Drug	Simple	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.7, 7.9	5.8	10.0, 25.2	17.6
	Complex	2.5, 7.5	5.0	1.7, 2.7	2.2	3.7, 7.9	5.8	10.0, 25.2	17.6
Biologic	Simple	5.4, 16.2	10.8	1.9, 3.0	2.4	4.5, 10.5	7.5	27.7, 80.5	54.1
	Complex	16.2, 27.0	21.6	7.0, 8.3	7.6	5.0, 11.6	8.3	30.5, 88.5	59.5
		Selection and validation of markers		Development		Regulated trials beyond EUO/CE
Diagnostics	Assay development	1.0, 5.0	3.0	1.0, 3.0	2.0	1.0, 6.0	3.5
	Simple technical platform development	N/A	N/A	50.0, 150.0	100.0	1.0, 6.0	3.5