Table 5. Probability of success (attrition rate) and cycle time methodology.

Archetype (N = number of product candidates used in estimation)	Functional definition for estimating attrition rate and cycle time ab	Other adjustments made to assumptions
Simple vaccine (N=247)	All vaccines listed for indications requiring a simple vaccine based on McKinsey pharmaceutical practice classification; excludes influenza vaccines	Adjusted preclinical phase probability as per Pronker et al., 2013 12
Complex vaccine (N=409)	All vaccines listed for indications requiring a complex vaccine based on McKinsey pharmaceutical practice classification
Simple NCE (N=3655)	All NCEs with more than 1 candidates in Phase III or higher as proxy for validated target	Adjusted preclinical phase probability of success to 55–65% per McKinsey pharmaceutical practice
Complex NCE (N=4426)	All NCEs with 1 or 0 candidates in Phase III or higher as proxy for non-validated target
Innovative NCE (N=14425)	All NCEs excluding reformulations	N/A
Simple drug repurposing (N=3768)	All reformulations	N/A
Complex drug repurposing (N=3768)	All reformulations	Adjusted preclinical phase probability of success to 75% per Biovista Inc. Drug Repositioning Factsheet
Simple biologic (N=4247)	All other biologics not categorized as complex	Adjusted preclinical phase probability of success to 76% per KMR Pharmaceutical Benchmarking Forum for large new molecular entities; Assumed same spread between simple and complex probability of success from Pharmaprojects database
Complex biologic (N=1440)	All biologics for pharmacology classes categorized as complex, including gene therapy, antisense therapy, gene delivery vector, RNA interference, stem cell therapy, cellular therapy, and lytic virus

All assumptions based on Pharmaprojects database (>60,000 individual assets captured) and McKinsey Attrition Analytics Toolkit unless otherwise noted. All data points are from 2007 to 2014.