Table 2. Assumptions on costs, attrition rates, and cycle times per phase used in the P2I v.2 model.
| Archetype | Cost per phase ($, millions) | Length of phase (years) | Probability of success (%) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Preclinical | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | |
| Simple vaccine | 6.7 | 2.2 | 13.2 | 201.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 41.0 | 68.0 | 46.0 | 71.0 |
| Complex
vaccine |
16.6 | 2.5 | 13.9 | 223.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 41.0 | 50.0 | 22.0 | 64.0 |
| Unprecedented
vaccine |
16.6 | 2.5 | 13.9 | 223.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 41.0 | 50.0 | 5.0 | 40.0 |
| Simple NCE | 5.0 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 32.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 65.0 | 60.0 | 39.0 | 69.0 |
| Simple NCE
for TB |
5.0 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 32.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 65.0 | 60.0 | 39.0 | 50.0 |
| Complex NCE | 10.0 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 36.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 55.0 | 57.0 | 20.0 | 40.0 |
| Simple
repurposed drug |
5.0 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 17.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 75.0 | 59.0 | 46.0 | 68.0 |
| Complex
repurposed drug |
5.0 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 17.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 75.0 | 59.0 | 46.0 | 68.0 |
| Simple biologic | 6.7 | 2.2 | 13.2 | 122.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 41.0 | 68.0 | 46.0 | 70.0 |
| Simple biologic
for TB |
6.7 | 2.2 | 13.2 | 122.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 41.0 | 68.0 | 46.0 | 55.0 |
| Complex
biologic |
16.6 | 2.5 | 13.9 | 126.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 41.0 | 50.0 | 22.0 | 40.0 |
| Concept
and Research |
Feasibility
and Planning |
Design and
Development |
Clinical
Validation and Launch Readiness |
Concept
and Research |
Feasibility
and Planning |
Design and
Development |
Clinical
Validation and Launch Readiness |
Concept
and Research |
Feasibility
and Planning |
Design and
Development |
Clinical
Validation and Launch Readiness |
|
| Diagnostic,
assay development |
1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 71 | 71 | 100 | 100 |
| Diagnostic,
simple platform development |
1.5 | 1.5 | 100.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 71 | 71 | 75 | 100 |
| Other products | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 87 | 87 | 95 | 80 |
| Sources of data: | ||
| P2I model assumptions | Risk-Adjusted Portfolio Model (RAP) | Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |