Table 10. Estimates of the number of product candidates needed at preclinical phase, development cost, and length of time until launch for to launch one product, by archetype, assuming pipeline is empty.
| Archetype | Number of products
needed at preclinical phase |
Cost
($, millions) |
Length of time
until launch (yrs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simple vaccine | 11.0 | 406.6 | 10 |
| Complex vaccine | 34.6 | 1057.4 | 13 |
| Unprecedented vaccine | 243.9 | 5550.0 | 13 |
| Other products (vector control) | 1.7 | 8.6 | 4 |
| Simple NCE | 9.5 | 130.3 | 11 |
| Simple NCE for TB | 13.1 | 179.8 | 11 |
| Complex NCE | 39.9 | 731.0 | 12 |
| Simple repurposed drug | 3.2 | 56.3 | 5 |
| Complex repurposed drug | 7.2 | 92.4 | 9 |
| Simple biologic | 11.1 | 299.8 | 11 |
| Simple biologic for TB | 14.2 | 381.5 | 11 |
| Complex biologic | 55.4 | 1449.8 | 12 |
| Diagnostic, assay development | 2.0 | 10.6 | 5 |
| Diagnostic, simple platform
development |
2.6 | 143.6 | 6 |