Table 11. Estimated additional costs to launch 18 “missing” products.
| Disease | Archetype | Additional number of candidates
needed at preclinical phase (range *) |
Additional investment needed to achieve
one expected launch, $, millions (range *) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIV/AIDS | Unprecedented
vaccine |
125 (85-190) | 2844.4 (1740.8 – 4755.8) |
| TB | Unprecedented
vaccine |
169 (115-257) | 3845.6 (2355.1 – 6432.8) |
| Malaria | Unprecedented
vaccine |
171 (117-261) | 3891.1 (2396.1 – 6533) |
| Hepatitis C | Simple vaccine | 6 (4-8) | 222.2 (133.3 – 325.8) |
| Hepatitis C | Complex vaccine | 30 (21-46) | 915.6 (576.8 –1544.3) |
| Multiple diarrheal
diseases |
Simple vaccine | 11 (8-17) | 406.6 (266.6 – 692.4) |
| Multiple diarrheal
diseases |
Complex vaccine | 35 (24-53) | 1057.4 (659.2 – 1779.3) |
| TB | Complex NCE | 27 (18-41) | 495.0 (297.0 – 826.8) |
| 12 NTDs ** | Simple NCE | 101 (70-155) | 1851.6 (861.5 – 2331.5) |
| 12 NTDs ** | Complex NCE | 478 (326-728) | 8762.9 (5378.7 – 14680.6) |
*The range reports the results generated by the sensitivity analysis ((changing all probabilities of success per phase to 10% higher and 10% lower, all costs per phase to 10% higher and lower, and all possible combinations of these changes).
**These diseases are Buruli ulcer, Chagas disease, dengue, hookworm, human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), leishmaniasis, leprosy, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, trachoma, and trichuriasis