Table 9. Sensitivity analysis varying effect of changes in probability of success and cost of development per phase.
| Parameters | Percentage change from baseline | Estimated cost
($, millions) |
Estimated number
of product launches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 16348.8 | 128 | |
| Probability of
success |
Low (-10%) | 14873.3 | 89 |
| High (+10%) | 17981.7 | 160 | |
| Average cost per
phase |
Low (-10%) | 14713.9 | - |
| High (+10%) | 17983.6 | - | |
| Combined | Low (-10% for both parameters) | 13385.9 | 89 |
| Intermediate 1 (Cost+10%, Probability
of success -10%) |
16360.6 | 89 | |
| Intermediate 2 (Cost-10%, Probability of
success +10%) |
16183.6 | 160 | |
| High (+10% for both parameters) | 19779.9 | 160 |