Table 1.
Epidemiological and clinical parameters
| Variable | Value | Distribution | Number | Comments, reference | |||||
| Women | MSW | MSM | Women | MSW | MSM | ||||
| 1 | Initial clinic attendances | 61% | 27% | 12% | Beta | 590 787 | 259 064 | 116 137 | Clinician survey results |
| 2 | CT infection | 6.5% | 23.3% | 6.2% | Beta | 38 401 | 60 362 | 7200 | W14 28 29; MSW14 30; MSM14 |
| 3 | NG infection | 0.7% | 3.4% | 38.1% | Beta | 4136 | 8808 | 44 248 | W14 28 29; MSW14 30; MSM14 |
| 4 | MG infection | 4.2% | 12.3% | 9.3% | Beta | 24 813 | 31 865 | 10 801 | W14; MSW14 30; MSW14 |
| 5 | TV infection | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Beta | 25 995 | – | – | W14 28 29 31; MSW14; MSM estimate |
| 6 | CT-NG coinfection | 0.3% | 2.2% | 6.2% | Beta | 1772 | 5699 | 7200 | W14 28; MSW, MSW14 |
| 7 | CT-MG coinfection | 1.6% | 2.8% | 0.0% | Beta | 9453 | 7254 | – | W, MSW, MSW14 |
| 8 | CT-TV coinfection | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Beta | 1182 | – | – | W14 28 29; MSW14; MSM estimate |
| 9 | NG-MG coinfection | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | Beta | 3545 | 1554 | 1161 | W, MSW, MSM14 |
| 10 | NG-TV coinfection | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Beta | 2363 | – | – | W29; MSW14; MSM estimate |
| 11 | MG-TV coinfection | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Beta | 5908 | – | – | W14; MSW, MSM estimate |
| 12 | Sensitivity of microscopy for detecting NG | 40% | 75% | 75% | Uniform | Estimate based on published studies and clinical experience8 | |||
| 13 | Specificity of microscopy for detecting NG | 100% | 100% | 100% | Uniform | Estimate based on published studies and clinical experience8 | |||
| 14 | Sensitivity of microscopy for detecting TV | 50% | 50% | 50% | Uniform | Assumption based on clinical experience | |||
| 15 | Specificity of microscopy for detecting TV | 100% | 100% | 100% | Uniform | Assumption based on clinical experience | |||
| 16 | Sensitivity of current NAAT test for CT-NG | 97% | 97% | 97% | Uniform | Typical of best-performing tests currently used23 | |||
| 17 | Specificity of current NAAT test for CT-NG | 97% | 97% | 97% | Uniform | Typical of best-performing tests currently used23 | |||
| 18 | Sensitivity of POCTs for CT/NG/MG/TV | 95% | 95% | 95% | Uniform | Estimate based on tests currently available10 | |||
| 19 | Specificity of POCTs for CT/TV/MG | 96% | 96% | 96% | Uniform | Estimate based on tests currently available10 | |||
| 20 | Specificity of POCTs for NG | 98% | 98% | 98% | Uniform | Estimate based on tests currently available10 | |||
| 21 | CT infection—probability of PID | 16% | – | – | Normal | Estimate based on published studies2 | |||
| 22 | NG infection—probability of PID | 16% | – | – | Normal | Estimate based on published studies32 | |||
| 23 | MG infection—probability of PID | 4% | – | – | Normal | Estimate based on published studies1 | |||
| 24 | TV infection—probability of PID | 0% | – | – | Normal | Assumption | |||
| 25 | Microscopy at first attendance | 84% | 84% | 84% | Uniform | Assumption, clinician survey results | |||
| 26 | Presumptive treatment for CT | 50% | 50% | 50% | Normal | Estimate based on clinical practice | |||
| 27 | Proportion of MG infections cured by CT treatment | 67% | 67% | 67% | Uniform | Estimate based on published studies9 | |||
CT, Chlamydia trachomatis; MG, Mycoplasma genitalium; MSM, men-who-have-sex-with-men; MSW, men-who-have-sex-with-women; NAAT, nucleic acid amplification test; NG, Neisseria gonorrhoeae; NGU, non-gonococcal urethritis; PID, pelvic inflammatory disease; POCT, point-of-care test; TV, Trichomonas vaginalis.