Table 1.
Parameters used in the model.
| Parameter | Value | Source* |
|---|---|---|
| Competition for carriage acquisition (CN and CV)$ | 0.1 (SD 0.01) | [18,19] |
| Duration of carriage (δi) | ||
| 0–11 months | 47.1 days | [49] |
| 12–23 months | 39.4 days | [49] |
| 24–35 months | 31.6 days | [49] |
| 36–47 months | 21.5 days | [49] |
| 48–59 months | 21.3 days | [49] |
| 5–17 years | 17.0 days | [48,50] |
| 18 years and over | 18.0 days | [48,50] |
| Vaccine efficacy against carriage | ||
| Full protection (VECf) | 63% (95%CrI 53 −73 %) | [17] |
| Partial protection (VECp) | 0.78 (95%CI 0.64 – 0.92) * VECf | Meta-analysis of [44–47] (Supporting Information Part Two) |
| Mean duration of protection against carriage | ||
| In fully protected (DF) | 6.0 years | [17](Supporting Information Part Two) |
| In partially protected (DP) | 0.78 (95%CI 0.64 – 0.92) * DF | Based on same assumptions as for Vaccine efficacy |
| Vaccine efficacy against IPD (VEIPD) | 0.80 (0.61 – 0.90) | [51] |
| Vaccine efficacy against invasiveness (VEINV) | 0.48 (0.34 – 0.65) | Derived from estimates of [51] and [17] (Supporting Information Part Two) |
| Mixing matrix | Social contact study (Nha trang) | Calculated as in Melegaro et al. [42] |
$
Where 0.1 means a force of infection which is 10% that of a situation with no competition.