Table 3.

Hazard Ratios and 95% Confidence Intervals for Incident Atrial Fibrillation According to Plasma Homocysteine Level, ARIC (n=492), 1987–2013 and MESA (n=6631), 2000–2012.

		Quartiles of plasma homocysteine concentration (μmol/L)
	Log2(homocysteine)	Q1 (≤7.1)	Q2: (7.2–9.0)	Q3: (9.1–11.4)	Q4: (≥11.5)
ARIC
Participants, n	492	123	122	125	122
Person-years	10,106	2749	2571	2528	2258
Cases	85	14	17	24	30
Model 1	1.54 (0.86–2.75)	1	1.16 (0.45–3.03)	1.48 (0.58–3.79)	2.54 (0.99–6.48)
Model 2	1.44 (0.75–2.77)	1	1.05 (0.36–3.03)	1.45 (0.50–4.25)	2.76 (1.01–7.55)
Model 3	1.52 (0.84–2.75)	1	1.29 (0.37–4.51)	1.91 (0.66–5.52)	2.94 (1.07–8.10)
MESA
Participants, n	6641	1511	2248	1753	1129
Person-years	67,613	16,227	23,223	17,523	10,639
Cases	351	43	101	117	90
Model 1	1.39 (1.09–1.76)	1	1.17 (0.81–1.68)	1.40 (0.97–2.01)	1.49 (1.01–2.19)
Model 2	1.26 (0.98–1.62)	1	1.10 (0.76–1.57)	1.26 (0.88–1.81)	1.29 (0.87–1.90)
Model 3	1.24 (0.96–1.59)	1	1.04 (0.72–1.50)	1.33 (0.92–1.91)	1.22 (0.82–1.80)
Combined
Model 3	1.27 (1.01–1.61)	1	1.06 (0.74–1.50)	1.38 (0.98–1.95)	1.37 (0.95–1.96)
P for heterogeneity	0.53		0.75	0.53	0.11

Model 1: Adjusted for age, sex, race, field centre.

Model 2: Adjusted for Model 1 + body mass index, height, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, anti-hypertension medication, diabetes mellitus, smoking status, drinking status, and, left ventricular hypertrophy.

Model 3: Adjusted for Model 2 + time-varying coronary heart disease and heart failure.