Table 4.
Observed Cumulative Risk of Opioid Overdose at 2 Years, by Tertiles of Predicted Risk from the Derivation Site Model
| Tertile | Derivation site | Validation site | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individuals (n) |
Overdoses (n) |
Two-year cumulative overdose risk (%) | Individuals (n)* |
Overdoses (n) |
Two-year cumulative overdose risk (%) | |
| 1 | 14,299 | 15 | 0.12 | 1923 | 6 | 0.33 |
| 2 | 14,189 | 26 | 0.22 | 3336 | 15 | 0.48 |
| 3 | 14,340 | 80 | 0.68 | 5449 | 97 | 1.88 |
*The predicted risk for the cohort at the derivation site was categorized by tertiles, and the same risk thresholds were then applied to the validation site. Because the risk was higher at the validation site, the proportion of patients was not equal across the tertiles, and there were more patients in higher-risk tertiles