Table 3.

Risk reclassification for 10-year CVD prediction in women age 50 years with low birth weight offspring added to the reference model

Women with CVD events during 10-year follow-up
Reference model + LBW offspring (< 2500 g)
Reference model	0 to < 5%	5 to < 10%	≥ 10%	Total
0 to < 5%	138 (92.6)	11 (7.4)	0	149 (58.0)
5 to < 10%	5 (7.5)	57 (85.1)	5 (7.5)	67 (26.1)
≥ 10%	0	1 (2.4)	40 (97.6)	41 (16.0)
Total	143 (55.6)	69 (26.9)	45 (17.5)	257

Women with no CVD events during 10-year follow-up
Reference model + LBW offspring (< 2500 g)
Reference model	0 to < 5%	5 to < 10%	≥ 10%	Total
0 to < 5%	5828 (98.0)	119 (2.0)	0	5947 (83.2)
5 to < 10%	128 (12.9)	806 (81.3)	58 (5.9)	992 (13.9)
≥ 10%	0	38 (18.2)	171 (81.8)	209 (2.9)
Total	5956 (83.3)	963 (13.5)	229 (3.2)	7148

Data presented as n (%). Women censored due to non-events within 10-years of baseline are excluded from the table (n = 147). Categorical NRI for events = 0.038 (95% CI 0.003, 0.074, p = 0.04). Categorical NRI for non-events = − 0.001 (95% CI − 0.006, 0.003, p = 0.63). IDI = 0.0014 (95% CI − 0.0002, 0.0032, p = 0.10). C-index reference model = 0.69 (95% CI 0.66, 0.72). C-index reference model + LBW = 0.70 (95% CI 0.66, 0.73). C-index difference = 0.01 (95% CI − 0.0003, 0.02)

CI Confidence interval, CVD cardiovascular disease, IDI integrated discriminatory improvement, LBW low birth weight (< 2500 g), NRI net reclassification improvement