Table 1. Formula and examples of method for estimating prevalence of latent TB infection, United States, 2011–2015* .
Variable |
a |
b |
c |
d |
e |
f |
g |
h |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jurisdiction | Population | Average annual no. active TB cases | Proportion of TB cases attributed to recent transmission | Annual no. cases attributed to reactivation TB | Estimated no. infected residents if 0.10% annual risk for progression | Estimated prevalence of infection if 0.10% annual risk for progression, % | Sensitivity analysis for estimated prevalence of latent infection, % | |
Lower uncertainty limit based on 0.14% annual risk for progression | Upper uncertainty limit based on 0.06% annual risk for progression | |||||||
Example X | Any size | 0 | NA | 0 | NA | <1 | NA | NA |
Example Y | 150,000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1,000 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
Example Z | 2,000,000 | 50 | 0.2 | 40 | 40,000 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
*Let a = jurisdiction population, b = average annual no. TB cases in that jurisdiction, and c = proportion of TB cases attributed to recent transmission (i.e., [1 – c] = proportion attributed to latent TB infection). Then if b = 0, d = 0, and f <1%, otherwise d = b × (1 – c) and e = d/0.0010 if one assumes a 0.10% annual risk and f = e/a (×100 to express as a percentage) or (d/0.0014/a for lower uncertainty limit and h = d/0.0006/a for upper uncertainty limit. NA, not applicable; TB, tuberculosis.