Fig. 3. Short- and long-term effects of, on average, seven additional months of employment ban on refugee employment.

The figure shows the effect of a 7-month-longer average employment ban on the probability that refugees are employed in years 1 to 16 after their arrival in Germany. The blue line shows the point estimates from the linear interaction effect model with corresponding 95% confidence interval (n = 1645). Red point estimates and corresponding 95% confidence intervals show the corresponding effect sizes for a binning specification that relaxes the linear interaction effect assumption and estimates the effect at the median of each tercile of the length-of-residency variable. pp, percentage point.