Fig. 3.

Ecoregion, site, and taxonomic differences in the relationships of climate variability to colonization and persistence probability. We estimated the relationship between annual conditions for five climatic drivers and species turnover and how it varies among ecoregions (a), site type (b), and taxonomic grouping (c). Effect size is on a logistic scale and represents the effect of a 1-SD change in the climate covariate on colonization and persistence. Error bars are the 95% credible interval for the estimate. Positive values indicate a location is more likely to be occupied in years after an increase in the climate covariate (higher colonization and persistence probability), whereas negative values are associated with declines in years with higher values. Plotted effect sizes for categorical variables are the group mean effects. For example, greater winter severity, as measured by higher values of the air-freezing index, was associated with increased colonization and persistence for species in the Western Montane region. Estimates and SE for effect sizes can be found in Table 1