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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Sep 26.
Published in final edited form as: Curr Alzheimer Res. 2018;15(8):777–788. doi: 10.2174/1567205015666180119092427

Table 4.

Estimated transition matrices. A: Age 65; B: Age 75.

A.
Age 66
Normal MCI Mild AD Mod. AD Severe AD Non-AD CI Death
Age 65 Normal 92% 4% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1%
MCI - 78% 21% 0% 0% - 1%
Mild AD - - 75% 19% 1% - 4%
Mod. AD - - 15% 49% 27% - 9%
Severe AD - - 0% 5% 79% - 16%
Non-AD CI - - - - - 93% 7%
Death - - - - - - 100%
B.
Age 76
Normal MCI Mild AD Mod. AD Severe AD Non-AD CI Death
Age 75 Normal 90% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1%
MCI - 75% 23% 0% 0% - 2%
Mild AD - - 72% 21% 1% - 6%
Mod. AD - - 13% 46% 29% - 12%
Severe AD - - 0% 4% 76% - 20%
Non-AD CI - - - - - 90% 10%
Death - - - - - - 100%

AD, Alzheimer’s disease; CI, cognitive impairment; MCI, mild cognitive impairment

Estimated using a multivariate ordered probit of health state conditional on age and health state in the prior year; transitions from normal cognition to non-AD CI estimated in a separate probit controlling for age and age-squared; death may be underreported in the NACC data. Rates adjusted to sum to 100%.

AD, Alzheimer’s disease; CI, cognitive impairment; MCI, mild cognitive impairment.