Table 8.
Estimated Reductions in HCV Mortality and Prevalence Corresponding to Increased Investments in HCV Diagnosis, Treatment, and Access
| Reference | Country | Current Prevalence | Current Treatment Level (Annual) | Modelled Intervention (Annual) | Effect in 2030 (% Reduction Compared to Current Level) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bourgeois, 201695 | Belgium | HCV+: 66,200 Undiagnosed: 57% |
Diagnoses: 2,280 Treatments: 1,350 Access: ≥F2 |
Diagnoses: 3,030 (37% ↑) Treatments: 4,060 (200% ↑) Access: All |
Mortality: 50% ↓ Prevalence: 90% ↓ |
| Diagnoses: 2,280 (no change) Treatments: 4,060 (200% ↑) Access: All |
Mortality: 29% ↓ Prevalence: 59% ↓ |
||||
| Diagnoses: 3,030 (37% ↑) Treatments: 4,060 (200% ↑) Access: ≥F2 |
Mortality: 65% ↓ Prevalence: 67% ↓ |
||||
| Diagnoses: 3,030 (37% ↑) Treatments: 3,000 (122% ↑) Access: All |
Mortality: 32% ↓ Prevalence: 75% ↓ |
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| Buti, 201796 | Spain | HCV+: 426,998 | Diagnoses: 5,500 Treatments: 20,000 Access: ≥ F2 |
Status quo | Prevalence (2025): 32% ↓ |
| Diagnoses: 40,000 (627% ↑) Treatments: 50,000 (150% ↑) Access: ≥F1 until 2022, then all |
Prevalence (2025): 95% ↓ | ||||
| Diagnoses: 15,000 (172% ↑) Treatments: 38,000 (90% ↑) Access: ≥F2 |
Prevalence (2025): 44% ↓ | ||||
| Kabiri, 201493 | US | HCV+: 2.2 million Undiagnosed: 43% |
Screening: 0 Treatment: 0 |
Prevalence: 18% ↓ | |
| Screening: Risk based Treatments: 83,270 Average SVR: 36% to 54% |
Prevalence: 50% ↓ | ||||
| Screening: Risk based and birth years 1945–1965 Treatments: 83,270 Average SVR: 90% |
Prevalence: 73% ↓ | ||||
| The European Union HCV Collaborators, 201794 | All EU | HCV+: 3,238,000 Undiagnosed: 64% (10–88% undiagnosed across countries) |
Diagnoses: 88,800 Treatments: 150,000 Access: ≥F2 Average SVR: 89% |
Continuing with status quo | Mortality: 50% ↓ Prevalence: 40% ↓ |
| Diagnoses: 180,000 (100% ↑) Treatments: 187,000 (25% ↑) Access: All Average SVR: 95% |
Mortality: 65% ↓ Prevalence: 90% ↓ |
||||
| Diagnoses: 180,000 (100% ↑) Treatments: 192,000 (28% ↑) Access: All Average SVR: 85% |
Mortality: 65% ↓ Prevalence: 90% ↓ |
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| Van Nuys, 201555 | US | Undiagnosed: 50% | Treatments: 296,000 Access: ≥F3 |
Prevalence: 62% ↓ | |
| Treatments: 125,000 Access: All |
Prevalence: 70% ↓ | ||||
| Woode, 201697 | Low-income | HCV+: 10.8 milliona | Diagnoses: 1% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 years): 7,081 Access: ≥F3 |
Diagnoses: 1% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 yearsb): 3.6 M Access: ≥F3 |
Mortality (2025): 19% ↓ Incidence (2025): 7.8% ↓ |
| Diagnoses: 1% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 yearsb): 9.5 M Access: All |
Mortality (2025): 19% ↓ Incidence (2025): 19% ↓ |
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| Low-middle | HCV+: 33.3 milliona | Diagnoses: 3% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 years): 787,535 Access: ≥F3 |
Diagnoses: 3% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 yearsb): 13.1 M Access: ≥F3 |
Mortality (2025): 40% ↓ Incidence (2025): 15% ↓ |
|
| Diagnoses: 3% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 yearsb): 31.4 M Access: All |
Mortality (2025): 40% ↓ Incidence (2025): 19% ↓ |
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| Upper-middle | HCV+: 25.3 milliona | Diagnoses: 5% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 years): 1.38 M Access: ≥F3 |
Diagnoses: 5% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 yearsb): 9.0 M Access: ≥F3 |
Mortality (2025): 46% ↓ Incidence (2025): 17% ↓ |
|
| Diagnoses: 5% × (1.2 × year) Treatments (10 yearsb): 20.6 M Access: All |
Mortality (2025): 46% ↓ Incidence (2025): 39% ↓ |
HCV, hepatitis C virus; HCV+, HCV-infected; SVR, sustained virologic response.
a.
Personal communication (Maame E. Woode, October 15, 2017).
b.
Cumulative over 10 years, but not evenly as treatment capacity increases by a factor of 1.2 per year.