Table 3.
Classification accuracy in pre-defined strata for prediction of suicide attempts and suicide deaths within 90 days of a mental health or primary care visit in seven health systems, 2009–2015. Potential over-fitting in training sample is indicated by differences between predicted and actual risks.
| SUICIDE ATTEMPTS FOLLOWING: | SUICIDE DEATHS FOLLOWING: | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Ment al Health Specialty Visit | A Mental Health Specialty Visit | ||||||||
| Risk Score Percentile Strata | Predicted Risk1 | Actual Risk2 | % of All Attempts3 | Standardized Event Ratio4 | Risk Score Percentile Strata | Predicted Risk1 | Actual Risk2 | % of All Deaths3 | Standardized Event Ratio4 |
| >99.5th | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10% | 20.7 | >99.5th | 0.654% | 0.694% | 12% | 24.6 |
| 99th to 99.5th | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6% | 12.9 | 99th to 99.5th | 0.638% | 0.595% | 11% | 21.5 |
| 95th to 99th | 4.1% | 4.2% | 27% | 6.7 | 95th to 99th | 0.162% | 0.167% | 25% | 6.3 |
| 90th to 95th | 1.9% | 1.8% | 15% | 3.0 | 90th to 95th | 0.068% | 0.088% | 16% | 2.3 |
| 75th to 90th | 0.9% | 0.9% | 21% | 1.4 | 75th to 90th | 0.031% | 0.029% | 16% | 1.1 |
| 50th to 75th | 0.3% | 0.3% | 13% | 0.51 | 50th to 75th | 0.014% | 0.015% | 13% | 0.54 |
| <50th | 0.1% | 0.1% | 8% | 0.16 | <50th | 0.003% | 0.003% | 6% | 0.12 |
| A Primary Care Visit with Mental Health Diagnosis | A Primary Care Visit with Mental Health Diagnosis | ||||||||
| Risk Score Percentile Strata | Predicted Risk1 | Actual Risk2 | % of All Attempts3 | Standardized Event Ratio4 | Risk Score Percentile Strata | Predicted Risk1 | Actual Risk2 | % of All Deaths3 | Standardized Event Ratio4 |
| >99.5th | 8.6% | 8.0% | 15% | 30.5 | >99.5th | 0.536% | 0.435% | 14% | 28.8 |
| 99th to 99.5th | 4.1% | 4.2% | 8% | 16.3 | 99th to 99.5th | 0.181% | 0.197% | 7% | 13.0 |
| 95th to 99th | 1.6% | 1.6% | 25% | 6.2 | 95th to 99th | 0.092% | 0.083% | 22% | 5.6 |
| 90th to 95th | 0.7% | 0.7% | 13% | 2.6 | 90th to 95th | 0.035% | 0.038% | 13% | 2.5 |
| 75th to 90th | 0.3% | 0.3% | 18% | 1.2 | 75th to 90th | 0.018% | 0.019% | 19% | 1.3 |
| 50th to 75th | 0.1% | 0.1% | 12% | 0.49 | 50th to 75th | 0.009% | 0.009% | 15% | 0.62 |
| <50th | 0.04% | 0.04% | 9% | 0.17 | <50th | 0.003% | 0.003% | 10% | 0.19 |
Notes:
1
Predicted risk in this stratum using final model predictors and coefficients in the training sample
2
Observed risk in this stratum using final model predictors and coefficients in the validation sample
3
Percentage of all suicide attempts or deaths occurring in this stratum in validation sample
4
Ratio of observed risk in this stratum of the validation sample to average risk in the full validation sample