Table 4. Predictors of incident hypertension in patients on ART (n = 60,570).
| Variable | Number of events/person years | Incidence rate/100 person years (95% CI¥) | Crude hazard ratio (95% CI¥) | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI¥) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Female | 4,699/83,557 | 5.62 (5.46–5.79) | Reference | Reference |
| Male | 3,426/47,144 | 7.27 (7.03–7.51) | 1.22 (1.17–1.28) | 1.23 (1.14–1.32) |
| Age (years) at ART* initiation | ||||
| 18–24 | 208/7,406 | 2.81 (2.44–3.22) | 0.50 (0.43–0.57) | 0.54 (0.44–0.67) |
| 25–29 | 761/21,818 | 3.49 (3.24–3.74) | 0.64 (0.60–0.70) | 0.74 (0.66–0.82) |
| 30–39 | 3,396/62,283 | 5.45 (5.27–5.64) | Reference | Reference |
| 40–49 | 2,532/30,528 | 8.29 (7.97–8.62) | 1.49 (1.41–1.57) | 1.45 (1.35–1.57) |
| ≥50 | 1,228/8,665 | 14.17 (13.39–14.99) | 2.15 (2.01–2.30) | 1.99 (1.80–2.20) |
| Body mass index (kg/m2) at ART* initiation | ||||
| <18 | 674/13,430 | 5.02 (4.65–5.41) | 0.72 (0.66–0.78) | 0.72 (0.65–0.80) |
| 18.0–24.9 | 3,756/64,355 | 5.84 (5.65–6.03) | Reference | Reference |
| 25.0–29.9 | 1,304/17,556 | 7.43 (7.03–7.84) | 1.34 (1.25–1.43) | 1.38 (1.27–1.51) |
| 30.0–34.9 | 515/5,232 | 9.84 (9.01–10.73) | 1.74 (1.58–1.91) | 1.87 (1.64–2.13) |
| ≥35 | 215/1,958 | 10.98 (9.56–12.55) | 1.88 (1.63–2.16) | 2.01 (1.66–2.45) |
| Pre-hypertension at ART* initiation | ||||
| No | 4,805/100,828 | 4.77 (4.63–4.90) | Reference | Reference |
| Yes | 3,320/29,873 | 11.11 (10.74–11.50) | 2.32 (2.22–2.43) | 2.05 (1.92–2.19) |
| Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor | ||||
| efavirenz | 7,335/117,486 | 6.24 (6.10–6.39) | Reference | Reference |
| nevirapine | 679/11,346 | 5.98 (5.54–6.45) | 1.00 (0.93–1.09) | 1.27 (1.13–1.43) |
| Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor | ||||
| tenofovir | 2,368/41,118 | 5.76 (5.53–6.00) | Reference | Reference |
| zidovudine | 379/5,171 | 7.33 (6.61–8.11) | 1.32 (1.18–1.48) | 1.41 (1.18–1.69) |
| stavudine | 5,378/84,412 | 6.37 (6.20–6.54) | 1.17 (1.11–1.23) | 1.42 (1.31–1.54) |
| CD4 count at ART* initiation (per 100 cells/μl) | ||||
| 0–49 | 1,900/27,708 | 6.86 (6.55–7.17) | 1.09 (0.96–1.24) | 1.25 (1.03–1.50) |
| 50–99 | 1,327/19,613 | 6.77 (6.41–7.14) | 1.15 (1.01–1.31) | 1.15 (0.95–1.39) |
| 100–199 | 2,238/38,678 | 5.79 (5.55–6.03) | 1.08 (0.95–1.22) | 1.05 (0.87–1.26) |
| 200–349 | 1,102/18,751 | 5.88 (5.54–6.23) | 1.08 (0.95–1.23) | 1.13 (0.93–1.37) |
| 350+ | 0,279/4,945 | 5.64 (5.00–6.34) | Reference | Reference |
| WHO€ stage at ART* initiation | ||||
| I/II | 3,175/49,997 | 6.35 (6.13–6.58) | Reference | Reference |
| III/IV | 2,613/42,053 | 6.21 (5.98–6.46) | 0.86 (0.81–0.90) | 1.00 (0.93–1.07) |
| Hemoglobin at ART* initiation (g/dL) | ||||
| <10 | 1,690/25,104 | 6.73 (6.41–7.06) | 0.90 (0.85–0.96) | 1.06 (1.00–1.12) |
| ≥10 | 5,472/87,415 | 6.26 (6.10–6.43) | Reference | Reference |
*ART = antiretroviral therapy;
€WHO = World Health Organization;
¥CI = confidence interval. All predictors are measured at ART initiation. Model adjusted for gender, body mass index, age, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, WHO stage, CD4 count at ART initiation, hemoglobin levels at ART initiation. Fine and Gray’s competing risk regression used controlling for death as a competing risk for incident hypertension